Will the Arizona Governor election be won by the Republican candidate? [ resolves — ]
polymarket: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Democrats | — | 99.6% | — | $26K | A | 0xaf874c…a4b3 | ||
| The Republicans | — | 22.0% | — | $24K | A | 0x8ccbfc…8e69 | ||
| Option A | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x4460db…16a0 | ||
| Option B | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x021ccd…741e | ||
| Option C | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xedbc61…788a | ||
| Option D | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x05f409…fd1b | ||
| Option E | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb1329c…7d1a | ||
| Option F | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x310aae…71a6 | ||
| Option G | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf606b3…2ab6 | ||
| Option H | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x1092a8…0e98 | ||
| Option I | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x0b2627…10ff | ||
| Option J | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x4d41f6…91d1 | ||
| Other | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9d5b8f…8eba |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (4) · quorum — multiple sources must agree
Associated Press from rules text Fox News from rules text NBC from rules text official certification from rules text
recent wire items
- Democrats stay strong favorite in Arizona governor race at 92% 92% · $26K 24h
- Polymarket prices Democrats at 92% to win the 2026 Arizona governorship, leaving Republicans a slim 8% shot.
- 24h volume of $26K is 26% of all-time, a meaningful but not extreme one-day share.
- Arizona's swing-state status makes any governor race a macro-relevant event; fresh volume may track candidate news.
- Resolves after November 2026 Arizona general election.
- Democrats stay heavy favorites in Arizona governor race on fresh money 92% · $25K 24h
- Polymarket prices a Democratic Arizona governor win in 2026 at 92%, strong favorite with limited tail risk priced in.
- $25.1K in 24h is 26% of all-time volume, the market is more seasoned, making today's activity still notable.
- Arizona remains a marquee Sun Belt battleground; volume at 92% may reflect early-cycle position-building or reaction to candidate news.
- Resolves on Arizona's 2026 general election result.
- Arizona governor race favors Democrats heavily through a volume surge 92% · $15K 24h
- Polymarket prices a Democratic Arizona governor win at 92%, market treats this as close to resolved over a year out.
- 26% of all-time volume traded in one session, consistent with a catalyst-driven attention spike.
- Arizona governor race in 2026 draws focus as a key Sun Belt executive contest; Republican field and candidate clarity may be driving the re-pricing.
- Resolves on certified 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election result.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/arizona-governor-winner-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/arizona-governor-winner-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("arizona-governor-winner-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-T8VRLGR9D8",
"slug": "arizona-governor-winner-2026",
"question": "Will the Arizona Governor election be won by the Republican candidate?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"arizona",
"governor-race",
"us-elections",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 49731,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 82,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "official certification",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}