Will a Republican win the Arkansas Senate election? [ resolves — ]
polymarket: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Republicans | — | 94.2% | — | $8.6K | A | 0x814f52…1c62 | ||
| The Democrats | — | 5.5% | — | $3.6K | A | 0xfd583c…4364 | ||
| Person A | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x1b740c…dda8 | ||
| Person B | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x10a721…619f | ||
| Person C | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd5349d…926c | ||
| Person D | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xbf34d6…e78d | ||
| Person E | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x591305…09e7 | ||
| Person F | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xcf1195…1b40 | ||
| Person G | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9af515…2f8b | ||
| Person H | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x76ff8f…6d07 | ||
| Person I | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xcf2237…f2a7 | ||
| Person J | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x0221d8…55e0 | ||
| A candidate not listed above | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa16bb7…ed27 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (4) · quorum — multiple sources must agree
Associated Press from rules text Fox News from rules text NBC from rules text official certification from rules text
recent wire items
- Democrats in Arkansas stay a long shot at 4% odds 4% · $26K 24h
- 4% price on polymarket leaves the Arkansas Senate seat firmly in Republican hands by market consensus.
- $25,802 in 24h is 59% of all-time volume, more than half the contract's lifetime traded in a single session.
- A spike of this size into a 4% contract may reflect a political event or filing development drawing speculative attention.
- Resolves on 2026 Arkansas Senate general election.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/arkansas-senate-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/arkansas-senate-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("arkansas-senate-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GC5J8DX6R3",
"slug": "arkansas-senate-election-winner",
"question": "Will a Republican win the Arkansas Senate election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"us-senate",
"arkansas",
"2026-election",
"partisan-prediction"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 12175,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 82,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "official certification",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}