Will the average number of ships transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the end of July be above a specified threshold? [ resolves 2026-07-31 (8D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Between 28 and 30 | 2026-07-31 | 30.0% | $17 | $791 | A | 0x87aef7…2e7b | ||
| Between 34 and 36 | 2026-07-31 | 24.0% | $8 | $1.1K | A | 0x02ef02…3bc5 | ||
| Fewer than 25 | 2026-07-31 | 18.0% | $130 | $2.6K | A | 0xc16dd5…281a | ||
| Between 31 and 33 | 2026-07-31 | 18.0% | $35 | $1.6K | A | 0xff4268…6211 | ||
| 40 or more | 2026-07-31 | 17.0% | $236 | $2.7K | A | 0xce8290…64cd | ||
| Between 25 and 27 | 2026-07-31 | 12.2% | $17 | $859 | A | 0x5ed681…971d | ||
| Between 37 and 39 | 2026-07-31 | 11.0% | $8 | $1.2K | A | 0x1b056f…c962 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c sources (3) · single authority
- portwatch.imf.org venue-listed
- IMF Portwatch from rules text · editorial
- IMF PortWatch source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/avgpt-of-ships-transiting-bab-el-mandeb-strait-end-of-july-20260713195907051/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/avgpt-of-ships-transiting-bab-el-mandeb-strait-end-of-july-20260713195907051 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("avgpt-of-ships-transiting-bab-el-mandeb-strait-end-of-july-20260713195907051") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-W3P0CXRTK5",
"slug": "avgpt-of-ships-transiting-bab-el-mandeb-strait-end-of-july-20260713195907051",
"question": "Will the average number of ships transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the end of July be above a specified threshold?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"maritime-shipping",
"middle-east",
"red-sea",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 10870,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 87,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "portwatch.imf.org",
"url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "IMF Portwatch",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "IMF PortWatch",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}