Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? [ resolves 2026-07-31 (8D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Between 0 and 20 | 2026-07-31 | 92.8% | $6.1K | $96K | A | 0xeb1c9b…19b5 | ||
| Between 20 and 40 | 2026-07-31 | 7.0% | $3.0K | $40K | A | 0x1577b3…9ae4 | ||
| Between 40 and 60 | 2026-07-31 | 2.5% | $760 | $54K | A | 0x7e3981…baec | ||
| Between 60 and 80 | 2026-07-31 | 0.4% | $760 | $21K | A | 0x64c297…0f80 | ||
| 80 or more | 2026-07-31 | 0.3% | $760 | $20K | A | 0x3783c4…f49c |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 sources (3) · single authority
- portwatch.imf.org venue-listed
- IMF Portwatch source of record from rules text · editorial
- https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/avgpt-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-july-20260626153158273/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/avgpt-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-july-20260626153158273 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("avgpt-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-july-20260626153158273") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-KZNQTJ9ZC0",
"slug": "avgpt-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-july-20260626153158273",
"question": "Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"strait-of-hormuz",
"maritime-shipping",
"middle-east",
"energy-security",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 230396,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "portwatch.imf.org",
"url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "IMF Portwatch",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}