Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-05? [ resolves 2026-08-04 (29D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
- Traders stack conviction behind Lamb locking up AZ-05 GOP nod 89% · $12K 24h
- 89% signals the crowd views Lamb's Republican nomination for Arizona's 5th district as near-certain.
- $11.5K over 24 hours equals 32% of all-time contract volume, reflecting a concentrated surge into an already-high-confidence position.
- Inflow at this price level suggests a catalyst, filing deadline, poll, or rival dropout, sharpened certainty among informed traders.
- Nomination outcome likely resolves at or after the primary date; residual 11% reflects ballot or procedural tail risk.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/az-05-republican-primary-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/az-05-republican-primary-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("az-05-republican-primary-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-843R2H28J1",
"slug": "az-05-republican-primary-winner",
"question": "Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"arizona",
"republican-primary",
"2026",
"us-house"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 50045,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.rnc.org/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}