Will Jerônimo Rodrigues or João Roma win the Bahia gubernatorial election? [ resolves 2026-10-04 (73D) ]

polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot

polymarket 28 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Jerônimo Rodrigues	2026-10-04	51.0%	$127	$27K	A	`0xc7dd27…c573`
ACM Neto	2026-10-04	50.0%	$425	$28K	A	`0x707ca1…f5ee`
João Roma	2026-10-04	0.1%	—	$5.2K	A	`0x43a713…d91b`
José Carlos Aleluia	2026-10-04	0.1%	$125	$6.5K	A	`0x66983c…2ed8`
Kleber Rosa	2026-10-04	0.1%	$125	$7.4K	A	`0x21aedb…25e7`
Rui Costa	2026-10-04	0.1%	—	$5.7K	A	`0xf4d93c…310a`
Bruno Soares Reis	2026-10-04	0.1%	—	$5.3K	A	`0x392940…cd88`
Someone else	2026-10-04	0.0%	—	—	A	`0xf49ef3…1c16`
Placeholder 1	2026-10-04	0.0%	—	—	A	`0x991cd5…0e38`
Placeholder 2	2026-10-04	0.0%	—	—	A	`0xe04383…0dc3`
Placeholder 3	2026-10-04	0.0%	—	—	A	`0x643509…c22a`
Placeholder 4	2026-10-04	0.0%	—	—	A	`0x2f6a65…6b52`
Placeholder 5	2026-10-04	0.0%	—	—	A	`0xa39cd1…3e71`
Placeholder 6	2026-10-04	0.0%	—	—	A	`0x1dc939…3671`
Placeholder 7	2026-10-04	0.0%	—	—	A	`0x08ade2…b28c`
Placeholder 8	2026-10-04	0.0%	—	—	A	`0xad9d25…8732`
Placeholder 9	2026-10-04	0.0%	—	—	A	`0x0e1c8f…ffef`
Placeholder 10	2026-10-04	0.0%	—	—	A	`0x50d98c…e0a2`
Placeholder 11	2026-10-04	0.0%	—	—	A	`0xabc4da…9b01`
Placeholder 12	2026-10-04	0.0%	—	—	A	`0x2c976b…f898`
Placeholder 13	2026-10-04	0.0%	—	—	A	`0xac638c…7959`
Placeholder 14	2026-10-04	0.0%	—	—	A	`0x6096f5…cf25`
Placeholder 15	2026-10-04	0.0%	—	—	A	`0x24c806…60b0`
Placeholder 16	2026-10-04	0.0%	—	—	A	`0x845f56…80f2`
Placeholder 17	2026-10-04	0.0%	—	—	A	`0xf3e789…e305`
Placeholder 18	2026-10-04	0.0%	—	—	A	`0xc064da…21d0`
Placeholder 19	2026-10-04	0.0%	—	—	A	`0xaa5108…63de`
Placeholder 20	2026-10-04	0.0%	—	—	A	`0xf272f3…858b`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	not provided	link	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 28 markets · share this text

The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

platform source field polymarket.description → www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes

sources (3) · stated precedence rule

tse.jus.br source of record venue-listed
Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) from rules text · editorial
www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes from rules text · editorial

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/bahia-governor-election-winner/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/bahia-governor-election-winner`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("bahia-governor-election-winner")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-BSZ53QYGS1",
  "slug": "bahia-governor-election-winner",
  "question": "Will Jerônimo Rodrigues or João Roma win the Bahia gubernatorial election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "elections",
    "politics",
    "brazil",
    "gubernatorial",
    "2026",
    "bahia"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 28,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 85224,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 90,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "tse.jus.br",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "tse.jus.br",
      "url": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →