Will Republicans control the U.S. House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (153D) ]
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 2026-11-03 | 47.0% | $12K | $1.92M | B | 0x16c63b…8b0d | ||
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 2026-11-03 | 36.0% | $15K | $1.47M | B | 0x998bc7…c06e | ||
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | 2026-11-03 | 17.0% | $5.5K | $1.49M | B | 0xc5eae7…e76b | ||
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House | 2026-11-03 | 1.8% | $6.8K | $1.11M | B | 0x0808de…a908 | ||
| 2026 Balance of Power: Other | 2026-11-03 | 0.8% | $7.9K | $1.50M | B | 0x7987a8…fd3d |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | Associated Press | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolution_source → "Associated Press" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/balance-of-power-2026-midterms/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/balance-of-power-2026-midterms.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("balance-of-power-2026-midterms") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-420D9TG6H7",
"slug": "balance-of-power-2026-midterms",
"question": "Will Republicans control the U.S. House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"us-midterms",
"2026",
"balance-of-power",
"legislative-control"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7489784,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 76,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Associated Press",
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}