Will the Bank of Canada raise its policy interest rate in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 30.0% | — | $19K | A | 0x22679b…7c14 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates sources (3) · single authority
- bankofcanada.ca source of record venue-listed
- Bank of Canada from rules text · editorial
- https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/bank-of-canada-rate-hike-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/bank-of-canada-rate-hike-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("bank-of-canada-rate-hike-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-R69N2KZRC1",
"slug": "bank-of-canada-rate-hike-in-2026",
"question": "Will the Bank of Canada raise its policy interest rate in 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"central-banking",
"canada",
"monetary-policy",
"interest-rates",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 18758,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "bankofcanada.ca",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "bankofcanada.ca",
"url": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bank of Canada",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}