Will the Bank of Japan make a policy decision in June? [ resolves 2026-06-16 (13D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
polymarket 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2026-06-16 | 12.0% | $1.6K | $56K | B | 0xe2fc1b…7de7 | ||
| ≥ 25 | 2026-06-16 | 87.0% | $2.8K | $62K | B | 0xb3237c…cff4 | ||
| ≥ 50 | 2026-06-16 | 0.9% | $3.5K | $67K | B | 0xd17595…3de9 | ||
| Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the June 2026 meeting | 2026-06-16 | 0.6% | $695 | $48K | B | 0xba7ce2…7a4f |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/bank-of-japan-decision-in-june/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/bank-of-japan-decision-in-june.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("bank-of-japan-decision-in-june") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-0296WV97L4",
"slug": "bank-of-japan-decision-in-june",
"question": "Will the Bank of Japan make a policy decision in June?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"economy",
"economic-policy",
"central-banking",
"japan",
"monetary-policy"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 232650,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_illustrative"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}