Will the Bank of Mexico make a decision in August? [ resolves 2026-08-06 (14D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 50+ bps | 2026-08-06 | 0.2% | $30 | $5.8K | A | 0x8b2b74…b9f2 | ||
| Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps | 2026-08-06 | 9.3% | $111 | $8.0K | A | 0xbae725…f5a7 | ||
| No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates | 2026-08-06 | 89.9% | $1.7K | $48K | A | 0xf4a411…51e0 | ||
| Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps | 2026-08-06 | 0.3% | $1.6K | $9.7K | A | 0xffe2b9…9c50 | ||
| Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 50+ bps | 2026-08-06 | 0.4% | $50 | $4.4K | A | 0xbd46a9…3aa4 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 6, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp sources (4) · single authority
- banxico.org.mx venue-listed
- official information from the Bank of Mexico from rules text · editorial
- the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting from rules text · editorial
- the official Bank of Mexico calendar from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/bank-of-mexico-decision-in-august/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/bank-of-mexico-decision-in-august |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("bank-of-mexico-decision-in-august") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-WLJ8WS85W0",
"slug": "bank-of-mexico-decision-in-august",
"question": "Will the Bank of Mexico make a decision in August?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"economy",
"monetary-policy",
"interest-rates",
"mexico",
"central-banking"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 76132,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bank of Mexico",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "banxico.org.mx",
"url": "https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official information from the Bank of Mexico",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "the official Bank of Mexico calendar",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}