Will the third-place party in the Berlin State Election receive less than 10% of the vote? [ resolved 2026-09-20 ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 24 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AfD | 2026-09-20 | 100.0% | — | $4.9K | A | 0xaa22b5…162d | ||
| CDU | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | $4.8K | A | 0xe34251…c9cc | ||
| Grüne | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | $2.1K | A | 0x2e8dc1…5ebe | ||
| SPD | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | $1.2K | A | 0xb1c0ce…dfb3 | ||
| FDP | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | $614 | A | 0x8da505…9aab | ||
| Linke | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | $4.4K | A | 0xca8e14…18f6 | ||
| FW | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | $531 | A | 0x5fbf73…33da | ||
| BSW | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | $632 | A | 0xb4fba6…966c | ||
| Party A | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x556fd2…5fbb | ||
| Party B | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x1623e0…16ed | ||
| Party C | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa00244…6127 | ||
| Party D | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x3010d1…48f2 | ||
| Party E | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd8ef85…93d8 | ||
| Party F | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x33e743…c58d | ||
| Party G | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x8b99d8…17aa | ||
| Party H | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x6ae861…8cf8 | ||
| Party I | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe5825a…356d | ||
| Party J | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x67a54d…a749 | ||
| Party K | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xde265e…bf66 | ||
| Party L | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xdd7f17…3bf7 | ||
| Party M | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd02db3…1718 | ||
| Party N | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x571ec8…cb05 | ||
| Party O | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x0dbf42…1d66 | ||
| Another party | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x62ee9f…d20b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/ sources (2) · stated precedence rule
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will AfD win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 100% |
| NO | Will Grüne win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will CDU win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will SPD win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will FDP win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will BSW win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will FW win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (8 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/berlin-state-election-3rd-place-20260708010022790/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/berlin-state-election-3rd-place-20260708010022790 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("berlin-state-election-3rd-place-20260708010022790") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-PBPJ543L75",
"slug": "berlin-state-election-3rd-place-20260708010022790",
"question": "Will the third-place party in the Berlin State Election receive less than 10% of the vote?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"germany",
"berlin",
"2026",
"electoral-competition"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 24,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 19203,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "berlin.de",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "berlin.de",
"url": "https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}