Will the SPD win the most seats in the Berlin state election by 2026? [ resolves 2026-09-20 (109D) ]
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 24 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections | 2026-09-20 | 28.0% | $92 | $25K | C | 0x71a21e…17a0 | ||
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections | 2026-09-20 | 25.5% | $71 | $2.20M | C | 0x8aaaca…44f0 | ||
| Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections | 2026-09-20 | 22.0% | $5 | $20K | C | 0xda4fbe…27f4 | ||
| Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections | 2026-09-20 | 21.7% | — | $67K | C | 0xe56ea3…880b | ||
| Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections | 2026-09-20 | 6.9% | $72 | $297K | C | 0x4d5c17…7cd9 | ||
| Will BSW win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections | 2026-09-20 | 0.2% | — | $32K | C | 0x04941d…69a8 | ||
| Will FDP win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections | 2026-09-20 | 0.1% | — | $17K | C | 0x209a70…6860 | ||
| Will FW win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections | 2026-09-20 | 0.1% | — | $13K | C | 0xaeef87…1a74 | ||
| Will Party B win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd0a392…447b | ||
| Will Party D win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xcded96…509c | ||
| Will Party F win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3315f6…3181 | ||
| Will Party H win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf85b0d…1287 | ||
| Will Party J win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9ddaed…4c50 | ||
| Will Party L win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x538cea…1b35 | ||
| Will Party N win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf2c72c…50bb | ||
| Will another party win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x662378…ba58 | ||
| Will Party A win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0ffa07…58b2 | ||
| Will Party C win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x486925…173c | ||
| Will Party E win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4529e7…2fe4 | ||
| Will Party G win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xebd481…0df2 | ||
| Will Party I win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa18419…1821 | ||
| Will Party K win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xda444b…9cae | ||
| Will Party M win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x608433…f53d | ||
| Will Party O win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf398f5…23c7 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/ recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/berlin-state-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/berlin-state-election-winner.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("berlin-state-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-99FRTX6C37",
"slug": "berlin-state-election-winner",
"question": "Will the SPD win the most seats in the Berlin state election by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"germany",
"berlin",
"2026",
"state-election"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 24,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2673942,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}