Will the SPD win the most seats in the Berlin State Election? [ resolved 2026-09-20 ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 24 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linke | 2026-09-20 | 100.0% | $50 | $111K | A | 0xda4fbe…27f4 | ||
| CDU | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | $252 | $131K | A | 0x71a21e…17a0 | ||
| AfD | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | $1.7K | $2.35M | A | 0x8aaaca…44f0 | ||
| Grüne | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | $60 | $126K | A | 0xe56ea3…880b | ||
| SPD | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | $21 | $360K | A | 0x4d5c17…7cd9 | ||
| FDP | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | $21K | A | 0x209a70…6860 | ||
| FW | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | $15K | A | 0xaeef87…1a74 | ||
| BSW | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | $49K | A | 0x04941d…69a8 | ||
| Party A | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x0ffa07…58b2 | ||
| Party B | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd0a392…447b | ||
| Party C | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x486925…173c | ||
| Party D | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xcded96…509c | ||
| Party E | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x4529e7…2fe4 | ||
| Party F | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x3315f6…3181 | ||
| Party G | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xebd481…0df2 | ||
| Party H | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf85b0d…1287 | ||
| Party I | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa18419…1821 | ||
| Party J | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9ddaed…4c50 | ||
| Party K | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xda444b…9cae | ||
| Party L | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x538cea…1b35 | ||
| Party M | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x608433…f53d | ||
| Party N | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf2c72c…50bb | ||
| Party O | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf398f5…23c7 | ||
| Another party | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x662378…ba58 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/ sources (1) · stated precedence rule
berlin.de committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| YES | Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 100% |
| NO | Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will FDP win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will FW win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will BSW win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (8 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- CDU Berlin plurality faces contested capital with even odds 42% · $17K 24h
- Polymarket prices 42%, market assigns CDU a slight plurality lead but far from a certainty in Berlin.
- $17K in 24h is 30% of all-time volume; attention building ahead of Berlin state election campaigning.
- SPD and Greens competitive in Berlin polling; 42% reflects genuine uncertainty in a historically contested city-state.
- Resolves on official Berlin state election results; date not yet fixed within 2026 calendar.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/berlin-state-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/berlin-state-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("berlin-state-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-99FRTX6C37",
"slug": "berlin-state-election-winner",
"question": "Will the SPD win the most seats in the Berlin State Election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"germany",
"berlin",
"2026",
"legislative"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 24,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 3162943,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "berlin.de",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "berlin.de",
"url": "https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}