Will the best AI model on August 1 be Claude 3.5 Sonnet? [ resolves 2026-08-01 (9D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 4 markets
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control sources (4) · single authority
- https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control venue-listed
- arena.ai venue-listed
- arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) source of record from rules text · editorial
- Text Arena | Overall from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/best-ai-model-on-august-1-20260717010751015/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/best-ai-model-on-august-1-20260717010751015 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("best-ai-model-on-august-1-20260717010751015") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZCS9QQ64W5",
"slug": "best-ai-model-on-august-1-20260717010751015",
"question": "Will the best AI model on August 1 be Claude 3.5 Sonnet?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai",
"tech",
"model-performance",
"artificial-intelligence",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 13943,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 91,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
"resolution_source_url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
"url": null,
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "arena.ai",
"url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Text Arena | Overall",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}