Will a billionaire one-time wealth tax appear on a California ballot? [ resolved 2026-06-25 ]
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?
polymarket: [A] objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot | 2026-06-25 | 100.0% | $150 | $132K | A | 0x04f1a1…fc62 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | California Secretary Of State (consensus fallback) | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolution_source → "California Secretary Of State (consensus fallback)" resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? | polymarket | 2026-06-25 | 100% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-on-california-ballot/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-on-california-ballot |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-on-california-ballot") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MYD49CY8L9",
"slug": "billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-on-california-ballot",
"question": "Will a billionaire one-time wealth tax appear on a California ballot?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"california",
"wealth-tax",
"ballot-measure",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 131509,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 81,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "California Secretary Of State (consensus fallback)",
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}