CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,330 EVENTS / ~30,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

The price of Bitcoin on July 25 [ resolved 2026-07-25 ]

polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 11 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
≥ $54,000 2026-07-25 99.9%
$1.0K $16K
A 0xb36f72…e301
≥ $56,000 2026-07-25 99.9%
$7.3K $16K
A 0x01653c…5ae1
≥ $58,000 2026-07-25 99.6%
$312 $3.3K
A 0x77f512…bb4a
≥ $60,000 2026-07-25 99.3%
$1.8K $2.2K
A 0x6267e7…4da6
≥ $62,000 2026-07-25 98.9%
$4.3K $18K
A 0x20bf52…0002
≥ $64,000 2026-07-25 74.0%
$4.4K $11K
A 0x889b5a…1a6d
≥ $66,000 2026-07-25 19.0%
$1.6K $4.8K
A 0x27c470…3cbb
≥ $68,000 2026-07-25 1.0%
$28K $31K
A 0x803983…db48
≥ $70,000 2026-07-25 1.1%
$1.7K $5.0K
A 0x43c460…5557
≥ $72,000 2026-07-25 0.1%
$186 $2.0K
A 0xdd22f2…1246
≥ $74,000 2026-07-25 0.1%
$14K $14K
A 0xd9a51d…83e2
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
polymarket Whitelisted Proposers not provided link Optimistic Oracle (UMA) Other
verbatim rules
polymarket 11 markets · share this text
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
platform source field polymarket.descriptionhttps://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
sources (3) · single authority
  • binance.com venue-listed
  • Binance source of record from rules text · editorial
  • https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/bitcoin-above-on-july-25-2026/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/bitcoin-above-on-july-25-2026
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("bitcoin-above-on-july-25-2026")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-LXJSX431W9",
  "slug": "bitcoin-above-on-july-25-2026",
  "question": "The price of Bitcoin on July 25",
  "category": "crypto",
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "bitcoin",
    "crypto-prices",
    "price-prediction",
    "spot-price",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 11,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 121866,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 91,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "Binance",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "binance.com",
      "url": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Binance",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →