The price of Bitcoin on July 25 [ resolved 2026-07-25 ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $54,000 | 2026-07-25 | 99.9% | $1.0K | $16K | A | 0xb36f72…e301 | ||
| ≥ $56,000 | 2026-07-25 | 99.9% | $7.3K | $16K | A | 0x01653c…5ae1 | ||
| ≥ $58,000 | 2026-07-25 | 99.6% | $312 | $3.3K | A | 0x77f512…bb4a | ||
| ≥ $60,000 | 2026-07-25 | 99.3% | $1.8K | $2.2K | A | 0x6267e7…4da6 | ||
| ≥ $62,000 | 2026-07-25 | 98.9% | $4.3K | $18K | A | 0x20bf52…0002 | ||
| ≥ $64,000 | 2026-07-25 | 74.0% | $4.4K | $11K | A | 0x889b5a…1a6d | ||
| ≥ $66,000 | 2026-07-25 | 19.0% | $1.6K | $4.8K | A | 0x27c470…3cbb | ||
| ≥ $68,000 | 2026-07-25 | 1.0% | $28K | $31K | A | 0x803983…db48 | ||
| ≥ $70,000 | 2026-07-25 | 1.1% | $1.7K | $5.0K | A | 0x43c460…5557 | ||
| ≥ $72,000 | 2026-07-25 | 0.1% | $186 | $2.0K | A | 0xdd22f2…1246 | ||
| ≥ $74,000 | 2026-07-25 | 0.1% | $14K | $14K | A | 0xd9a51d…83e2 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT sources (3) · single authority
- binance.com venue-listed
- Binance source of record from rules text · editorial
- https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/bitcoin-above-on-july-25-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/bitcoin-above-on-july-25-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("bitcoin-above-on-july-25-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-LXJSX431W9",
"slug": "bitcoin-above-on-july-25-2026",
"question": "The price of Bitcoin on July 25",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"bitcoin",
"crypto-prices",
"price-prediction",
"spot-price",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 121866,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 91,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Binance",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "binance.com",
"url": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Binance",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}