Will Bitcoin have its best performance in a single month during 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]
Will April be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 12 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will April be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 22.0% | — | $16K | A | 0xbc691a…2951 | ||
| Will October be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 17.0% | — | $13K | A | 0xc26c4c…f1c0 | ||
| Will November be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 16.0% | $250 | $23K | A | 0x8e4762…978a | ||
| Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 16.0% | $55 | $20K | A | 0xda3a93…0024 | ||
| Will July be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | — | $6.3K | A | 0x032239…8eb3 | ||
| Will September be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | — | $6.6K | A | 0x33954b…c053 | ||
| Will August be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 8.0% | $49 | $6.6K | A | 0x181ddd…8c42 | ||
| Will June be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 6.0% | $1.2K | $9.0K | A | 0x5a4fc5…2696 | ||
| Will February be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 0.5% | — | $27K | A | 0x019afd…d8f8 | ||
| Will January be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 0.1% | — | $503K | A | 0xb5b0b9…1cc8 | ||
| Will March be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 0.1% | — | $56K | A | 0xcffb94…ec24 | ||
| Will May be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 0.1% | — | $20K | A | 0x9dbfdc…5895 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | binance.com | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to the calendar month in 2026 during which Bitcoin has the highest percentage change.
The “Change” value shown for each monthly candle will be used. A monthly candle is considered finalized once the following month’s candle is published.
The resolution source is Binance, using the BTC/USDT trading pair:
https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
If two or more months are tied for the highest percentage change, this market will resolve to the earliest month chronologically.
Only Binance BTC/USDT data will be used. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or data sources will not be considered.
If it becomes impossible for a given month to have the highest percentage change in 2026, that outcome may resolve to “No” immediately.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/bitcoin-best-month-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/bitcoin-best-month-in-2026.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("bitcoin-best-month-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-YYPFMDLGL3",
"slug": "bitcoin-best-month-in-2026",
"question": "Will Bitcoin have its best performance in a single month during 2026?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"bitcoin",
"crypto-prices",
"monthly-performance",
"2026-events",
"price-ranking",
"crypto"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 12,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 707254,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 81,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "binance.com",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}