Will Bitcoin's price be higher at August 4, 1 PM ET than at the previous closing price? [ resolves 2026-08-04 (0D) ]
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 1PM ET
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 1PM ET | 2026-08-04 | 99.0% | $18K | $18K | A | 0xd8c0fa…af20 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down".
The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT sources (4) · single authority
- https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT venue-listed
- binance.com venue-listed
- Binance source of record from rules text · editorial
- Binance BTC/USDT from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/bitcoin-up-or-down-august-4-2026-1pm-et/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/bitcoin-up-or-down-august-4-2026-1pm-et |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("bitcoin-up-or-down-august-4-2026-1pm-et") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-YDR46DCK15",
"slug": "bitcoin-up-or-down-august-4-2026-1pm-et",
"question": "Will Bitcoin's price be higher at August 4, 1 PM ET than at the previous closing price?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"bitcoin",
"price-direction",
"intraday-resolution",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 17843,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Binance",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT",
"url": null,
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "binance.com",
"url": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Binance",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Binance BTC/USDT",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}