Will Bitcoin's price be higher on August 5 than on the previous day? [ resolves 2026-08-05 (1D) ]
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 5?
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down on August 5 | 2026-08-05 | 44.0% | $23K | $23K | C | 0xa16d06…480a |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 4 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 5 '26 12:00 ET candle.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 4 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 5 '26 12:00 ET candle.
If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT sources (2) · single authority
- https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT source of record venue-listed
- binance.com venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-august-5-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-august-5-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("bitcoin-up-or-down-on-august-5-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Y52P46DHY3",
"slug": "bitcoin-up-or-down-on-august-5-2026",
"question": "Will Bitcoin's price be higher on August 5 than on the previous day?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"crypto-prices",
"bitcoin",
"price-direction",
"2026",
"short-term"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 22977,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 81,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT",
"url": null,
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "binance.com",
"url": "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}