Will there be a blue wave in 2026? [ resolves 2026-11-30 (118D) ]
Blue wave in 2026?
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue wave in 2026 | 2026-11-30 | 99.8% | — | $53K | C | 0xed4fd0…88ed |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2)
polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com venue-listed upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com venue-listed
recent wire items
- Blue wave in 2026 fully priced after Democrat sweep Polymarket 100%
- Polymarket contract on a 2026 blue wave sits at 100%, reflecting resolved certainty after Democrat wins in both chambers.
- Democrats flipped at least seven Senate seats and won the House, consistent with the contract pricing full resolution at yes.
- Trading volume on companion election markets surged sharply overnight as results came in, drawing broad attention across the prediction market space.
- Resolution via UMA oracle; contract likely settles yes upon official certification of Democrat majority in both chambers.
- Fresh volume returns to the 2026 blue wave at 93% 93% · $82K 24h
- Polymarket prices a 2026 Democratic wave at 93%, the market is treating a broad Democratic sweep as the overwhelming base case.
- 24h volume of $82K is 34% of all-time flow on this contract, a heavy single-session share for a summary macro bet.
- The 93% level implies the market has already priced in a favorable Senate and House environment for Democrats; fresh flow is reinforcing, not challenging, consensus.
- Resolves based on contract-defined blue wave criteria at the 2026 midterms.
- Blue wave odds build strongly ahead of election day Polymarket 89%
- The Polymarket prediction market puts 89% odds on a blue wave in 2026; the Kalshi contract on the same event sits at 84%.
- The 5-point gap between venues on an identically framed question is notable; neither market shows hesitation, with both pricing a Democratic sweep as the strong base case.
- Cross-checking against the Republican Senate control contract at 73% on Polymarket creates a tension: 89% blue wave alongside 73% GOP Senate implies some probability mass where Democrats win the House but not the Senate.
- Resolution mechanics differ by venue: the Kalshi contract resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics (likely a metadata error); Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle on official results.
- Blue wave in 2026 stays heavily favored ahead of midterms Polymarket 89%
- Polymarket prices a blue wave in 2026 at 89%; Kalshi's parallel contract sits at 85%, both heavily favoring a Democratic sweep.
- Wall Street's expectation of sweeping Democratic gains is fully consistent with prediction market pricing, with both venues showing near-consensus odds.
- A blue tsunami (larger sweep) is priced at 64% on Kalshi, suggesting the market sees the wave as likely but not certain to be historically large.
- Republicans controlling at least one chamber sits at 70% on a separate Kalshi contract, revealing residual uncertainty, the market does not yet fully close the door on a partial GOP hold.
- Blue wave in 2026 stays near fully priced Polymarket 92%
- Polymarket prices the 2026 blue wave at 92%; Kalshi prices the same outcome at 83%, a notable 9-point cross-venue gap.
- Wall Street reporting aligns with prediction market consensus: both venues are pricing Democratic gains as the likely outcome.
- A companion Kalshi contract on Republicans holding at least one chamber sits at 68%, implying the market sees a blue wave as probable but not a total Republican wipeout.
- Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle; Kalshi resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics as the named authority for election-result certification.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/blue-wave-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/blue-wave-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("blue-wave-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-4N4F192YB2",
"slug": "blue-wave-in-2026",
"question": "Will there be a blue wave in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"congress",
"elections",
"us-midterms-2026",
"democratic-gains",
"election-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 52969,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 71,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_none"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_source_stated",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
"url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
"url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}