Will the Brazil Chamber of Deputies election occur in 2026? [ resolved 2026-10-05 ]
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?
polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 42 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another entity | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x88a582…e1ee | ||
| Placeholder 1 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xcf3d88…71ba | ||
| Placeholder 2 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x48cccc…aadc | ||
| Placeholder 3 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xbd1bde…85a9 | ||
| Placeholder 4 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x75e4d5…acee | ||
| Placeholder 5 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x14d84c…a278 | ||
| Placeholder 6 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xc81dcc…741c | ||
| Placeholder 7 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x9eb574…69c8 | ||
| Placeholder 8 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x4d5edd…0d01 | ||
| Placeholder 9 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1e2824…7151 | ||
| Placeholder 10 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x439fa1…940b | ||
| Placeholder 11 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x45731b…9182 | ||
| Placeholder 12 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x8c21ee…b43c | ||
| Placeholder 13 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb47da8…4e1d | ||
| Placeholder 14 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x27ee1d…ca50 | ||
| Placeholder 15 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x661329…40ef | ||
| Placeholder 16 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xea56b5…4097 | ||
| Placeholder 17 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x480367…cc4e | ||
| Placeholder 18 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x6baad4…2d3e | ||
| Placeholder 19 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x99c812…64e6 | ||
| Placeholder 20 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x2bb9a4…d969 | ||
| Placeholder 21 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb81ca1…911e | ||
| Placeholder 22 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xbed0c4…4c68 | ||
| Placeholder 23 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x950e55…697d | ||
| Placeholder 24 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xf12c5d…6874 | ||
| Placeholder 25 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x192b2c…a92a | ||
| Placeholder 26 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x0654cd…fa7d | ||
| Partido Liberal (PL) | 2026-10-05 | 100.0% | $248 | $29K | B | 0xf5ecb2…7f14 | ||
| Federação União Progressista (UPB) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $4.8K | B | 0xf2370d…8dfc | ||
| Partido Social Democrático (PSD) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $1.3K | B | 0xe56334…77a4 | ||
| Federação Brasil da Esperança (FE Brasil) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $2.9K | B | 0x3d8156…841d | ||
| Republicanos (REPUBLICANOS) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $1.5K | B | 0x968dce…2d58 | ||
| Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $1.6K | B | 0xdfb585…1153 | ||
| Federação PSDB Cidadania (PSDB-CIDADANIA) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $1.3K | B | 0x20d05d…7158 | ||
| Podemos (PODE) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $1.2K | B | 0x328343…85ed | ||
| Partido Democrático Trabalhista (PDT) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $1.2K | B | 0x1b5883…9973 | ||
| Partido Socialista Brasileiro (PSB) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $1.5K | B | 0x52ae7b…fa46 | ||
| Federação PSOL REDE (PSOL-REDE) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $1.2K | B | 0x5918d6…a577 | ||
| Federação Renovação Solidária (PRD-SOLIDARIEDADE) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $1.3K | B | 0xf788a3…965b | ||
| Avante (Avante) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $1.2K | B | 0x084016…32d3 | ||
| Partido Novo (NOVO) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $1.1K | B | 0x3feaee…b1eb | ||
| Partido Missão (MISSÃO) | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $21 | $6.1K | B | 0x715845…5e97 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The next federal Chamber of Deputies election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party or electoral federation that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (Câmara dos Deputados) as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election.
In the event of a tie between multiple entities for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the entity whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party or electoral federation in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election, not by any coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (https://www.camara.leg.br/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (5) · stated precedence rule
camara.leg.br committed source tse.jus.br venue-listed Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) from rules text www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes from rules text https://www.camara.leg.br/ from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? | polymarket | 2026-10-06 | 100% |
| NO | Will Partido Social Democrático (PSD) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? | polymarket | 2026-10-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Federação PSDB Cidadania (PSDB-CIDADANIA) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? | polymarket | 2026-10-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Podemos (PODE) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? | polymarket | 2026-10-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Partido Democrático Trabalhista (PDT) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? | polymarket | 2026-10-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Federação União Progressista (UPB) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? | polymarket | 2026-10-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Federação Brasil da Esperança (FE Brasil) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? | polymarket | 2026-10-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Republicanos (REPUBLICANOS) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? | polymarket | 2026-10-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? | polymarket | 2026-10-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Partido Socialista Brasileiro (PSB) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? | polymarket | 2026-10-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Federação PSOL REDE (PSOL-REDE) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? | polymarket | 2026-10-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Federação Renovação Solidária (PRD-SOLIDARIEDADE) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? | polymarket | 2026-10-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Avante (Avante) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? | polymarket | 2026-10-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Partido Novo (NOVO) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? | polymarket | 2026-10-06 | 0% |
| NO | Will Partido Missão (MISSÃO) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? | polymarket | 2026-10-06 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (15 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
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CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/brazil-chamber-of-deputies-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/brazil-chamber-of-deputies-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("brazil-chamber-of-deputies-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-D9FX2Q7ST2",
"slug": "brazil-chamber-of-deputies-election-winner",
"question": "Will the Brazil Chamber of Deputies election occur in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"brazil",
"chamber-of-deputies",
"2026",
"legislative"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 42,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 57486,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 71,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "camara.leg.br",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "camara.leg.br",
"url": "https://www.camara.leg.br/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "tse.jus.br",
"url": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.camara.leg.br/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}