Will the third-place finisher in the first round of the Brazil presidential election receive more than 10% of the vote? [ resolves 2026-10-04 (90D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 32 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renan Santos | 2026-10-04 | 46.0% | $269 | $77K | A | 0xcba209…0ee9 | ||
| Ronaldo Caiado | 2026-10-04 | 19.0% | — | $21K | A | 0x3dbbbe…26aa | ||
| Romeu Zema | 2026-10-04 | 14.0% | — | $13K | A | 0x745221…151e | ||
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 2026-10-04 | 10.6% | $11 | $9.6K | A | 0x6be36f…3a22 | ||
| Fernando Haddad | 2026-10-04 | 2.5% | — | $16K | A | 0xacc4e5…9e36 | ||
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 2026-10-04 | 1.1% | $7 | $6.7K | A | 0xd24e87…9f6e | ||
| Camilo Santana | 2026-10-04 | 0.9% | — | $7.8K | A | 0xe0bdf2…e6e5 | ||
| Eduardo Bolsonaro | 2026-10-04 | 0.8% | — | $41K | A | 0x439848…48fd | ||
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 2026-10-04 | 0.8% | $490 | $6.4K | A | 0x100bfb…b5e9 | ||
| Jair Bolsonaro | 2026-10-04 | 0.4% | — | $5.0K | A | 0xa3e04e…4835 | ||
| Aldo Rebelo | 2026-10-04 | 0.4% | — | $5.3K | A | 0x6b4d95…1f43 | ||
| Tarcisio de Freitas | 2026-10-04 | 0.3% | — | $4.9K | A | 0xc69eb6…26e5 | ||
| Geraldo Alckmin | 2026-10-04 | 0.3% | — | $4.9K | A | 0x5623b5…2956 | ||
| Tereza Cristina | 2026-10-04 | 0.2% | — | $2.0K | A | 0x64b05c…3b3b | ||
| Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior | 2026-10-04 | 0.2% | $4 | $96K | A | 0x31f312…f8ed | ||
| Eduardo Leite | 2026-10-04 | 0.2% | — | $3.9K | A | 0xf520f3…8428 | ||
| Helder Barbalho | 2026-10-04 | 0.2% | — | $1.7K | A | 0x16cf9d…a4ac | ||
| Person N | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x93897d…5405 | ||
| Person O | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xdb6d95…64fd | ||
| Person T | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x4c1a9d…c0b7 | ||
| Person V | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x568656…e4ec | ||
| Person X | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x45fe9b…4cb5 | ||
| Person Z | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x7fb33c…3a4f | ||
| Person S | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xdbe8e3…6494 | ||
| Person U | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf8ece5…31c9 | ||
| Person Y | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x390b8a…e5c8 | ||
| Person M | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xbc0070…3a24 | ||
| Person P | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xfc641d…8220 | ||
| Person Q | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9d7d83…53ad | ||
| Person R | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xbc6839…7e89 | ||
| Person W | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x0406f7…07c8 | ||
| Another person | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x88bdac…e868 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · single authority
- dadosabertos.tse.jus.br venue-listed
- Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) source of record from rules text · editorial
- https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/ from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| closed | Will Person N finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person O finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person T finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person V finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person X finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person Z finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person S finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person U finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person Y finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person M finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person P finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person Q finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person R finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person W finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will another person finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (15 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-3rd-place/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-3rd-place |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("brazil-presidential-election-first-round-3rd-place") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MQHJWNSWH5",
"slug": "brazil-presidential-election-first-round-3rd-place",
"question": "Will the third-place finisher in the first round of the Brazil presidential election receive more than 10% of the vote?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"brazil-elections-2026",
"electoral-outcomes",
"presidential-race",
"third-place-finish",
"latin-america"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 32,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 321822,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "dadosabertos.tse.jus.br",
"url": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}