Will the third-place finisher in the first round of the Brazil presidential election receive more than 10% of the vote? [ resolved 2026-10-05 ]
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 32 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Person M | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xbc0070…3a24 | ||
| Person N | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x93897d…5405 | ||
| Person O | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xdb6d95…64fd | ||
| Person P | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xfc641d…8220 | ||
| Person Q | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9d7d83…53ad | ||
| Person R | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xbc6839…7e89 | ||
| Person S | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xdbe8e3…6494 | ||
| Person T | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x4c1a9d…c0b7 | ||
| Person U | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf8ece5…31c9 | ||
| Person V | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x568656…e4ec | ||
| Person W | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x0406f7…07c8 | ||
| Person X | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x45fe9b…4cb5 | ||
| Person Y | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x390b8a…e5c8 | ||
| Person Z | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x7fb33c…3a4f | ||
| Another person | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x88bdac…e868 | ||
| Tarcisio de Freitas | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $7.2K | A | 0xc69eb6…26e5 | ||
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $9.9K | A | 0xd24e87…9f6e | ||
| Jair Bolsonaro | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $7.8K | A | 0xa3e04e…4835 | ||
| Fernando Haddad | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $18K | A | 0xacc4e5…9e36 | ||
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $11K | A | 0x100bfb…b5e9 | ||
| Eduardo Bolsonaro | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $44K | A | 0x439848…48fd | ||
| Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $101K | A | 0x31f312…f8ed | ||
| Renan Santos | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $4.5K | $172K | A | 0xcba209…0ee9 | ||
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $22K | A | 0x6be36f…3a22 | ||
| Ronaldo Caiado | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $958 | $39K | A | 0x3dbbbe…26aa | ||
| Romeu Zema | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $19K | A | 0x745221…151e | ||
| Camilo Santana | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $12K | A | 0xe0bdf2…e6e5 | ||
| Geraldo Alckmin | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $8.6K | A | 0x5623b5…2956 | ||
| Aldo Rebelo | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $8.6K | A | 0x6b4d95…1f43 | ||
| Eduardo Leite | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $8.2K | A | 0xf520f3…8428 | ||
| Tereza Cristina | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $4.1K | A | 0x64b05c…3b3b | ||
| Helder Barbalho | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $3.5K | A | 0x16cf9d…a4ac |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · single authority
dadosabertos.tse.jus.br venue-listed Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Fernando Haddad finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Camilo Santana finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Aldo Rebelo finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Eduardo Leite finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Tereza Cristina finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Helder Barbalho finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (17 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Lula finishing third in Brazil's first round priced out 0% · $12K 24h
- 0% price means the market assigns effectively zero probability to Lula finishing third or worse in the first round.
- 24h volume of $12K equals 25% of all-time, marking a notable one-day attention spike on a contract already near-resolved.
- Volume at zero likely reflects traders closing short positions or arbitrageurs clearing residual liquidity as the outcome is treated as settled.
- Resolves on official Brazilian electoral first-round results; Lula is a dominant frontrunner in all current polling.
- Flávio Bolsonaro third-place finish stays a long shot at 1% 1% · $15K 24h
- Polymarket prices Flávio Bolsonaro finishing third in Brazil's first round at just 1%, near-zero probability.
- 24h volume of $15.2K is 26% of all-time, a notable but not dominant share of the contract's history.
- Volume at 1% suggests traders are either hedging a tail or closing out speculative long positions.
- Resolves on official Brazilian first-round vote counts in October 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-3rd-place/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-3rd-place |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("brazil-presidential-election-first-round-3rd-place") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MQHJWNSWH5",
"slug": "brazil-presidential-election-first-round-3rd-place",
"question": "Will the third-place finisher in the first round of the Brazil presidential election receive more than 10% of the vote?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"brazil-elections-2026",
"electoral-outcomes",
"presidential-race",
"third-place-finish",
"latin-america"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 32,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 495550,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "dadosabertos.tse.jus.br",
"url": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}