Will there be a Brazilian presidential election by 2026? [ resolved 2026-10-05 ]
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 32 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 2026-10-04 | 80.1% | $69K | $7.93M | B | 0x1a01bf…285d | ||
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 2026-10-04 | 20.0% | $68K | $7.99M | B | 0xdf8e2d…d4a8 | ||
| Person M | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe7567e…60ea | ||
| Person N | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x536b50…5cb7 | ||
| Person O | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xadb93a…6b40 | ||
| Person P | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xf131ce…e938 | ||
| Person Q | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xce0d01…c1f9 | ||
| Person R | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x83c09f…9bbc | ||
| Person S | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x9caa7e…2bc7 | ||
| Person T | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xefb3eb…2ffc | ||
| Person U | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe16ba2…c053 | ||
| Person V | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x387a1d…a80a | ||
| Person W | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xebfa51…fbb3 | ||
| Person X | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x250868…215b | ||
| Person Y | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x0cd65c…bcdc | ||
| Person Z | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x95e98c…6c4b | ||
| Another person | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x399769…c5f2 | ||
| Tarcisio de Freitas | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $103K | $13.83M | B | 0x81a537…1a3a | ||
| Jair Bolsonaro | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $21K | $5.36M | B | 0x63d8f3…af80 | ||
| Fernando Haddad | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $34K | $6.68M | B | 0xdd3d10…7977 | ||
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $72K | $9.52M | B | 0x37ec4c…ed00 | ||
| Eduardo Bolsonaro | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $47 | $10.37M | B | 0xe1d573…5f2b | ||
| Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $2 | $10.38M | B | 0xa59bb6…8966 | ||
| Renan Santos | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $78K | $8.93M | B | 0x05297f…0ced | ||
| Ronaldo Caiado | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $126K | $5.42M | B | 0xbca3d7…caa1 | ||
| Romeu Zema | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $83K | $4.74M | B | 0x054725…b5a2 | ||
| Camilo Santana | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $26K | $4.30M | B | 0x101d08…aecc | ||
| Geraldo Alckmin | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $17K | $5.06M | B | 0xd0536d…7d49 | ||
| Eduardo Leite | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $38 | $7.91M | B | 0x70f1a7…5784 | ||
| Aldo Rebelo | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $219 | $4.88M | B | 0xafd3f9…753a | ||
| Tereza Cristina | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $45K | $3.43M | B | 0xae7dd9…4d13 | ||
| Helder Barbalho | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $2.32M | B | 0x919c9b…9faf |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · stated precedence rule
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (15 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/brazil-presidential-election/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/brazil-presidential-election |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("brazil-presidential-election") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-0D77MCWRL4",
"slug": "brazil-presidential-election",
"question": "Will there be a Brazilian presidential election by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"brazil",
"presidential-election",
"2026",
"latin-america",
"executive-office"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 32,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 119046490,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 66,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "dadosabertos.tse.jus.br",
"url": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}