Will there be a Brazilian presidential election by 2026? [ resolves 2026-10-04 (90D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 32 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 2026-10-04 | 47.0% | $103K | $6.38M | B | 0xdf8e2d…d4a8 | ||
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 2026-10-04 | 26.2% | $22K | $6.58M | B | 0x1a01bf…285d | ||
| Renan Santos | 2026-10-04 | 14.6% | $92K | $6.91M | B | 0x05297f…0ced | ||
| Camilo Santana | 2026-10-04 | 3.0% | $18K | $3.29M | B | 0x101d08…aecc | ||
| Fernando Haddad | 2026-10-04 | 2.1% | $43K | $5.68M | B | 0xdd3d10…7977 | ||
| Ronaldo Caiado | 2026-10-04 | 1.5% | $30K | $3.98M | B | 0xbca3d7…caa1 | ||
| Romeu Zema | 2026-10-04 | 1.3% | $24K | $3.58M | B | 0x054725…b5a2 | ||
| Jair Bolsonaro | 2026-10-04 | 0.7% | $16K | $4.50M | B | 0x63d8f3…af80 | ||
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 2026-10-04 | 0.7% | $32K | $7.39M | B | 0x37ec4c…ed00 | ||
| Geraldo Alckmin | 2026-10-04 | 0.4% | $18K | $3.39M | B | 0xd0536d…7d49 | ||
| Tarcisio de Freitas | 2026-10-04 | 0.2% | $50K | $12.60M | B | 0x81a537…1a3a | ||
| Tereza Cristina | 2026-10-04 | 0.2% | $23K | $1.70M | B | 0xae7dd9…4d13 | ||
| Eduardo Bolsonaro | 2026-10-04 | 0.1% | $16K | $9.54M | B | 0xe1d573…5f2b | ||
| Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior | 2026-10-04 | 0.1% | $9.6K | $9.92M | B | 0xa59bb6…8966 | ||
| Eduardo Leite | 2026-10-04 | 0.1% | $20K | $7.37M | B | 0x70f1a7…5784 | ||
| Aldo Rebelo | 2026-10-04 | 0.1% | $19K | $4.40M | B | 0xafd3f9…753a | ||
| Helder Barbalho | 2026-10-04 | 0.1% | $32K | $1.77M | B | 0x919c9b…9faf | ||
| Person M | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe7567e…60ea | ||
| Person N | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x536b50…5cb7 | ||
| Person O | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xadb93a…6b40 | ||
| Person P | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xf131ce…e938 | ||
| Person Q | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xce0d01…c1f9 | ||
| Person R | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x83c09f…9bbc | ||
| Person S | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x9caa7e…2bc7 | ||
| Person T | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xefb3eb…2ffc | ||
| Person U | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe16ba2…c053 | ||
| Person W | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xebfa51…fbb3 | ||
| Person Y | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x0cd65c…bcdc | ||
| Person V | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x387a1d…a80a | ||
| Person X | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x250868…215b | ||
| Person Z | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x95e98c…6c4b | ||
| Another person | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x399769…c5f2 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · stated precedence rule
- dadosabertos.tse.jus.br venue-listed
- Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) from rules text · editorial
- https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/ from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| closed | Will Person M win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person N win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person O win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person P win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person Q win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person R win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person S win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person T win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person U win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person W win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person Y win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person V win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person X win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will Person Z win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
| closed | Will another person win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 2026-10-04 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (15 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/brazil-presidential-election/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/brazil-presidential-election |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("brazil-presidential-election") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-0D77MCWRL4",
"slug": "brazil-presidential-election",
"question": "Will there be a Brazilian presidential election by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"brazil",
"presidential-election",
"2026",
"latin-america",
"executive-office"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 32,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 98983105,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "dadosabertos.tse.jus.br",
"url": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}