Will Bulgaria hold a presidential election by 2026? [ resolves 2026-11-30 (118D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 40 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iliana Iotova | 2026-11-30 | 70.0% | — | $89K | B | 0x5512bf…f485 | ||
| Аndrey Gyurov | 2026-11-30 | 11.0% | $1.2K | $10K | B | 0xd0590f…b407 | ||
| Nikolai Denkov | 2026-11-30 | 1.2% | — | $25K | B | 0xd70997…15dd | ||
| Rosen Zhelyazkov | 2026-11-30 | 0.4% | — | $27K | B | 0xbda477…5a2d | ||
| Vassil Terziev | 2026-11-30 | 0.4% | — | $6.2K | B | 0x0e675a…e5c2 | ||
| Natalia Kiselova | 2026-11-30 | 0.2% | $7 | $5.8K | B | 0x7b08f4…22b5 | ||
| Blagomir Kotsev | 2026-11-30 | 0.1% | — | $11K | B | 0x01b973…e1a4 | ||
| Kostadin Kostadinov | 2026-11-30 | 0.1% | $5 | $7.0K | B | 0xa9e24f…c390 | ||
| Yanaki Stoilov | 2026-11-30 | 0.1% | $7 | $5.8K | B | 0x74be00…1f79 | ||
| Krum Zarkov | 2026-11-30 | 0.1% | $7 | $5.0K | B | 0x5e202b…bd89 | ||
| Atanas Atanasov | 2026-11-30 | 0.1% | $7 | $4.4K | B | 0xe20cc3…05f0 | ||
| Boyko Borissov | 2026-11-30 | 0.1% | — | $5.8K | B | 0x6861ed…bfbe | ||
| Delyan Peevski | 2026-11-30 | 0.1% | $7 | $4.2K | B | 0x85f86b…f002 | ||
| Rosen Plevneliev | 2026-11-30 | 0.1% | $7 | $4.6K | B | 0xfa2b0a…b1cd | ||
| Someone else | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd2dee8…34a2 | ||
| Candidate B | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xeb3176…e477 | ||
| Candidate C | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb4128e…1c69 | ||
| Candidate D | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x8fd935…778f | ||
| Candidate E | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x4b558c…d94a | ||
| Candidate F | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x5eb9ec…80cb | ||
| Candidate G | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb2cb6c…5f85 | ||
| Candidate H | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x4f5148…7585 | ||
| Candidate I | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x0df806…c2ca | ||
| Candidate J | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x542b81…3b62 | ||
| Candidate K | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa3237b…0146 | ||
| Candidate L | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xfabf0b…89f4 | ||
| Candidate M | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb28300…a166 | ||
| Candidate N | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x78fa49…ee46 | ||
| Candidate O | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x16a748…03fb | ||
| Candidate P | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1e5697…5edd | ||
| Candidate Q | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x32f1af…d2b1 | ||
| Candidate R | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x5d1a27…81e9 | ||
| Candidate S | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x21e225…15bc | ||
| Candidate T | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xdccf82…1d33 | ||
| Candidate U | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xdbac18…e610 | ||
| Candidate V | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x462e6b…4dfb | ||
| Candidate W | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x88785a…55dd | ||
| Candidate X | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xfa980d…5bed | ||
| Candidate Y | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x53385f…b2b8 | ||
| Candidate Z | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x3257f4…88c7 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · stated precedence rule
Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) committed source www.cik.bg/ from rules text
recent wire items
- Kostadinov Bulgarian presidency bid trades at long-shot odds 1% · $18K 24h
- Polymarket prices Kostadin Kostadinov at just 1% to win the next Bulgarian presidential election, a near-zero probability outcome.
- $18.5K traded in 24 hours, representing 26% of all-time contract volume, meaningful fresh attention on an otherwise thin market.
- Volume into a 1% contract suggests either hedging against a tail scenario or speculative positioning on a far-right upset narrative gaining traction.
- Resolution tied to the Bulgarian presidential election result.
- Fresh volume backs Gyurov as a long shot in Bulgaria's presidential race 18% · $48K 24h
- At 18%, Polymarket rates Gyurov a distant underdog but not a fringe contender in Bulgaria's next presidential vote.
- 24h volume of $48K equals 40% of all-time contract volume, a concentrated, single-session attention spike.
- Burst of fresh activity suggests a domestic political development or candidacy news is driving outside attention to this market.
- Contract resolves on the Bulgarian presidential election outcome; no fixed date currently embedded in the question.
- Kostadinov priced out of Bulgaria's presidential race despite trading pick-up 1% · $14K 24h
- At 1%, Polymarket effectively rules out Kostadinov winning Bulgaria's next presidential election.
- 24h volume of $14K is 26% of all-time contract volume, suggesting fresh but modest engagement.
- Trading alongside the Gyurov spike points to a broader Bulgarian presidential news cycle pulling capital across multiple candidate contracts simultaneously.
- Contract resolves on the Bulgarian presidential election result.
- Gyurov draws fresh bets in Bulgarian presidential field 35% · $26K 24h
- Polymarket prices Andrey Gyurov at 35%, a meaningful but non-dominant share of probability in the Bulgarian presidential race.
- $25.5K in 24h equals 28% of all-time volume, indicating renewed market engagement with this Eastern European contest.
- At 35%, the market sees Gyurov as a credible frontrunner but not a clear winner, consistent with a fragmented candidate field.
- Contract resolves on the official Bulgarian presidential election outcome.
- Kostadinov trails badly in Bulgarian presidential market 2% · $14K 24h
- Polymarket prices Kostadin Kostadinov at 2%, the market sees his path to the Bulgarian presidency as highly unlikely.
- $14.4K in 24h represents 28% of all-time volume, mirroring the activity pattern on the concurrent Gyurov contract.
- Simultaneous surges on multiple Bulgarian presidential candidates suggest a single information event is driving re-pricing across the field.
- Contract resolves on the official Bulgarian presidential election outcome.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/bulgaria-presidential-election/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/bulgaria-presidential-election |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("bulgaria-presidential-election") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-C541X65QT7",
"slug": "bulgaria-presidential-election",
"question": "Will Bulgaria hold a presidential election by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"bulgaria",
"presidential-election",
"2026",
"eastern-europe"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 40,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 210875,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 65,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC)",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "www.cik.bg/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}