Will the winner of the CA-06 House election be determined by November 3, 2026? [ resolved 2026-11-03 ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Democratic Party | 2026-11-03 | 99.8% | — | $18K | B | 0x903cbd…aec2 | ||
| The Republican Party | 2026-11-03 | 0.8% | — | $24K | B | 0xbafe8c…a6c0 | ||
| Another party | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x3a9fb2…7b35 | ||
| Will A win the CA-06 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd13353…1fc9 | ||
| Will B win the CA-06 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x17df69…67c0 | ||
| Will C win the CA-06 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x05bb2a…af1e | ||
| Will D win the CA-06 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x131899…337a | ||
| Will E win the CA-06 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x13d011…99bc |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · stated precedence rule
fec.gov venue-listed Federal Election Commission committed source https://www.fec.gov/ from rules text
recent wire items
- CA-06 Democratic hold near certainty; volume backs the 97% 97% · $26K 24h
- Polymarket prices Democrats at 97%, effectively treating this seat as resolved before election day.
- 24h volume of $26K is 41% of all-time, a notable surge into a near-certain outcome.
- Yield-seeking flow into settled contracts often reflects broader portfolio hedging or arbitrage against correlated markets.
- Resolves on November 2026 election night.
- CA-06 Democratic hold trades near certainty on fresh volume 97% · $26K 24h
- Polymarket prices the Democratic candidate at 97%, effectively a resolution preview, not a contested market.
- $26K in 24h is 41% of all-time volume, notable for a market priced this close to certainty.
- Volume at near-100% odds typically reflects either arbitrage harvesting or a last-minute hedge against a tail risk.
- Resolves on 2026 California general election results.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ca-06-house-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/ca-06-house-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("ca-06-house-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-BM3S3MCMH3",
"slug": "ca-06-house-election-winner",
"question": "Will the winner of the CA-06 House election be determined by November 3, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"us-house",
"california",
"2026-elections",
"election-prediction"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 42062,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Election Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "fec.gov",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Election Commission",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}