Will the CA-20 House seat be won in the 2026 election? [ resolved 2026-11-03 ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Republican Party | 2026-11-03 | 99.2% | — | $9.3K | B | 0xc4ceb0…93e1 | ||
| The Democratic Party | 2026-11-03 | 11.4% | — | $18K | B | 0x3940d8…1ed5 | ||
| Another party | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x72954f…0e30 | ||
| Will A win the CA-20 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x107946…6e25 | ||
| Will B win the CA-20 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1561ed…6927 | ||
| Will C win the CA-20 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x14cecd…34d4 | ||
| Will D win the CA-20 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xc1bd43…4782 | ||
| Will E win the CA-20 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x604bb4…2897 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · stated precedence rule
fec.gov venue-listed Federal Election Commission committed source https://www.fec.gov/ from rules text
recent wire items
- CA-20 Republican seat all but locked in at 96% 96% · $15K 24h
- Polymarket prices Republican win at 96%, reflecting a near-certain outcome in a heavily red California district.
- 24h volume is 54% of all-time handle, an unusually large single-session share for a contract already at near-resolution pricing.
- Volume at ceiling prices typically signals late confirmation activity, traders closing out or adding to near-certain positions before resolution.
- Resolves on the 2026 CA-20 general election result.
- CA-20 House seat trading tests the 96% Republican ceiling 96% · $15K 24h
- Polymarket prices Republicans at 96% in CA-20, the market treats this race as effectively decided.
- $15K in 24h covers 54% of all-time volume, a majority of total activity compressed into one session.
- Late-stage volume at near-certainty prices typically reflects position squaring or hedging against a tail event.
- Resolves on the CA-20 House election in November 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ca-20-house-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/ca-20-house-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("ca-20-house-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-9KGFX70F78",
"slug": "ca-20-house-election-winner",
"question": "Will the CA-20 House seat be won in the 2026 election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"2026-midterms",
"california",
"house-races",
"us-congress"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 26978,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Election Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "fec.gov",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Election Commission",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}