Who will win the California 23rd congressional district House election? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (91D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Republican Party | 2026-11-03 | 93.2% | — | $28K | B | 0x901379…fb3c | ||
| The Democratic Party | 2026-11-03 | 1.8% | — | $32K | B | 0xc9e72c…6565 | ||
| Another party | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x06ac0d…1694 | ||
| Will A win the CA-23 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x7bd03e…6a5d | ||
| Will B win the CA-23 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xbd5b69…41ee | ||
| Will C win the CA-23 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd544ba…3303 | ||
| Will D win the CA-23 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd0c4a8…eac8 | ||
| Will E win the CA-23 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd41cee…608b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · stated precedence rule
recent wire items
- Democrats win CA-23 House seat priced at a long shot, 3% 3% · $22K 24h
- Polymarket prices a Democratic win in CA-23 at 3%, an extreme underdog line in a Republican-leaning district.
- 40% of all-time volume arrived in 24 hours, bringing fresh attention to an otherwise quiet House contract.
- Volume into a 3% line suggests traders may be using it as a cheap tail-risk hedge on House composition models.
- Resolves after CA-23 2026 House race results are certified.
- CA-23 Democratic odds stay under 5% on fresh trading 3% · $22K 24h
- Polymarket marks Democrats at 3% in CA-23, a deep-red district showing near-zero upset probability.
- 40% of all-time volume entered in 24h, an outsized move for a lopsided contract.
- Volume on a 3% price may reflect hedging against redistricting scenarios or cross-district basket activity.
- Resolves on 2026 House election results.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ca-23-house-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/ca-23-house-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("ca-23-house-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-X824QSSRY4",
"slug": "ca-23-house-election-winner",
"question": "Who will win the California 23rd congressional district House election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"2026-election",
"house-race",
"california",
"partisan-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 59517,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/)",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "fec.gov",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}