Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard maximum score, December 31, 2026 [ resolves 2026-02 – 2026-12 ]
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?
polymarket: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1500 | 2026-02-10 | 99.9% | — | $34K | B | 0x00339a…9092 | ||
| 1510 | 2026-07-28 | 99.9% | — | $2.9K | B | 0x61d075…e74f | ||
| 1520 | 2026-12-31 | 58.0% | $115 | $2.1K | B | 0xee9676…c1cb | ||
| 1530 | 2026-12-31 | 37.0% | $253 | $5.0K | B | 0xc553c8…02af | ||
| 1540 | 2026-12-31 | 28.0% | $101 | $745 | B | 0x0fe55f…ee2f | ||
| 1550 | 2026-12-31 | 17.0% | $5 | $47K | B | 0x466958…3869 | ||
| 1600 | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | — | $22K | B | 0x8f81a4…dd35 | ||
| 1650 | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | — | $8.6K | B | 0x572c13…08d7 | ||
| 1700 | 2026-12-31 | 3.1% | — | $9.0K | B | 0x0f051e…489e |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · single authority
lmarena.ai venue-listed lmarena.ai venue-listed Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) committed source
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-WBVLJ8RNS2",
"slug": "chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31",
"question": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard maximum score, December 31, 2026",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai-benchmarking",
"chatbot-arena",
"ai-performance",
"tech",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 130790,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 77,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/)",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "lmarena.ai",
"url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "lmarena.ai",
"url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}