Will China's annual inflation for 2026 exceed 3%? [ resolves 2027-01-10 (159D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ -1% | 2027-01-10 | 1.6% | $5 | $20K | A | 0x8c52b5…b5cd | ||
| ≥ -0.9% | 2027-01-10 | 0.8% | $5 | $3.3K | A | 0x1dd2e2…8d46 | ||
| ≥ -0.4% | 2027-01-10 | 3.8% | $5 | $4.6K | A | 0x2232f0…c647 | ||
| ≥ 0.1% | 2027-01-10 | 5.2% | $5 | $4.5K | A | 0x0643a9…fe3c | ||
| ≥ 0.6% | 2027-01-10 | 42.0% | $5 | $7.6K | A | 0xf2b7f5…cfe1 | ||
| ≥ 1.1% | 2027-01-10 | 26.0% | $15 | $11K | A | 0x4d8a21…d6d1 | ||
| ≥ 1.6% | 2027-01-10 | 9.3% | $5 | $5.9K | A | 0x88049a…7ba5 | ||
| ≥ 2% | 2027-01-10 | 4.4% | $5 | $7.6K | A | 0x97e8e9…feaf | ||
| ≥ 2.5% | 2027-01-10 | 0.3% | $5 | $3.3K | A | 0xaf30eb…e2f9 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ sources (4) · single authority
- stats.gov.cn venue-listed
- stats.gov.cn venue-listed
- National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China source of record from rules text · editorial
- NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/china-annual-inflation-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/china-annual-inflation-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("china-annual-inflation-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-WD50S1B919",
"slug": "china-annual-inflation-2026",
"question": "Will China's annual inflation for 2026 exceed 3%?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"economy",
"inflation",
"china",
"macroeconomic-indicators",
"price-levels"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 67717,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "stats.gov.cn",
"url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "stats.gov.cn",
"url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}