Will China's year-over-year GDP growth in Q2 2026 be above 5%? [ resolves 2026-07-16 (43D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
polymarket 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4% | 2026-07-16 | 2.0% | $15 | $3.4K | B | 0xb141cf…b2ae | ||
| ≤ 4% | 2026-07-16 | 0.7% | $15 | $3.7K | B | 0x6887c2…9665 | ||
| 4.3% | 2026-07-16 | 5.8% | $15 | $3.4K | B | 0x7ccef1…85c2 | ||
| 4.6% | 2026-07-16 | 62.0% | $103 | $9.8K | B | 0x800be7…2560 | ||
| 4.9% | 2026-07-16 | 26.0% | $29 | $4.7K | B | 0x4af115…3077 | ||
| 5.2% | 2026-07-16 | 8.0% | $15 | $5.9K | B | 0x339ef2…da52 | ||
| 5.5% | 2026-07-16 | 0.3% | $85 | $3.3K | B | 0xfb442d…c2f1 | ||
| 5.8% | 2026-07-16 | 0.2% | $10 | $2.9K | B | 0xece9ba…8cde | ||
| ≥ 6.1% | 2026-07-16 | 0.2% | $10 | $2.8K | B | 0xe8f6bf…102b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | stats.gov.cn | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/china-gdp-growth-yy-in-q2-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/china-gdp-growth-yy-in-q2-2026.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("china-gdp-growth-yy-in-q2-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZX9NJMKMD0",
"slug": "china-gdp-growth-yy-in-q2-2026",
"question": "Will China's year-over-year GDP growth in Q2 2026 be above 5%?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"economy",
"china-gdp",
"economic-growth",
"q2-2026",
"macroeconomics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 39820,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 72,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "stats.gov.cn",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}