Will China's year-over-year GDP growth in Q2 2026 be above 5%? [ resolved 2026-07-16 ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4% | 2026-07-16 | 0.0% | $176 | $5.1K | A | 0xb141cf…b2ae | ||
| ≤ 4% | 2026-07-16 | 0.0% | $204 | $5.1K | A | 0x6887c2…9665 | ||
| 4.3% | 2026-07-16 | 100.0% | $297 | $4.6K | A | 0x7ccef1…85c2 | ||
| 4.6% | 2026-07-16 | 0.0% | $183 | $12K | A | 0x800be7…2560 | ||
| 4.9% | 2026-07-16 | 0.0% | $278 | $6.8K | A | 0x4af115…3077 | ||
| 5.2% | 2026-07-16 | 0.0% | $176 | $6.9K | A | 0x339ef2…da52 | ||
| 5.5% | 2026-07-16 | 0.0% | $306 | $4.4K | A | 0xfb442d…c2f1 | ||
| 5.8% | 2026-07-16 | 0.0% | $206 | $5.4K | A | 0xece9ba…8cde | ||
| ≥ 6.1% | 2026-07-16 | 0.0% | $236 | $5.0K | A | 0xe8f6bf…102b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ sources (4) · single authority
- stats.gov.cn source of record venue-listed
- stats.gov.cn source of record venue-listed
- China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release from rules text · editorial
- https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.3%? | polymarket | 2026-07-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? | polymarket | 2026-07-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.2% and 5.5%? | polymarket | 2026-07-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.8% and 6.1%? | polymarket | 2026-07-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than 4.0%? | polymarket | 2026-07-16 | 0% |
| YES | Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%? | polymarket | 2026-07-16 | 100% |
| NO | Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%? | polymarket | 2026-07-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.5% and 5.8%? | polymarket | 2026-07-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be at least 6.1%? | polymarket | 2026-07-16 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (9 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- China Q2 GDP 4.3, 4.6% band locked in at full conviction 100% · $36K 24h
- Market prices 100% certainty the 4.3, 4.6% band captured official Q2 GDP, contract effectively settled.
- 24h volume of $35,777 equals 55% of all-time handle, signaling a decisive resolution flush.
- China's Q2 2026 GDP release has likely landed within the band, collapsing residual uncertainty.
- Resolves YES; remaining flow is arb-driven redemption or hedging of correlated macro positions.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/china-gdp-growth-yy-in-q2-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/china-gdp-growth-yy-in-q2-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("china-gdp-growth-yy-in-q2-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZX9NJMKMD0",
"slug": "china-gdp-growth-yy-in-q2-2026",
"question": "Will China's year-over-year GDP growth in Q2 2026 be above 5%?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"china-gdp",
"economic-growth",
"q2-2026",
"macroeconomics",
"gdp-threshold"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 55150,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 82,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "stats.gov.cn",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "stats.gov.cn",
"url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "stats.gov.cn",
"url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the \"Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP\" release",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}