Will the second-place finisher in the Clacton by-election receive fewer than 10,000 votes? [ resolves 2026-08 – 2027-06 ]
Will William Clouston get second place in the Clacton by-election?
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 53 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count Binface | 2026-08-13 | 100.0% | $14K | $397K | B | 0x124f07…d05c | ||
| Nigel Farage | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | $10.0K | $36K | B | 0x1dcfd4…b84f | ||
| Giles Watling | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | $3.3K | B | 0x981d79…4c7b | ||
| Jovan Owusu-Nepaul | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | $2.9K | B | 0xd62b52…5982 | ||
| Matthew Bensilum | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | $3.8K | B | 0x820d59…ca04 | ||
| Natasha Osben | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | $2.9K | B | 0x9d5bb5…d492 | ||
| Tony Mack | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | $2.5K | B | 0x15ad7c…a337 | ||
| Andrew Pemberton | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | $1.9K | B | 0xcc8d7a…fc6a | ||
| Laurence Fox | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | $300 | $11K | B | 0xfb1ca2…88bb | ||
| Piers Corbyn | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | $1.9K | B | 0x27dc2c…0837 | ||
| Adham Alkhatip | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | $1.8K | B | 0x39b707…8bc9 | ||
| Luke Worley | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | $1.4K | B | 0xc078a4…3a94 | ||
| Pamela Walford | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | $1.3K | B | 0xfa39e2…fed1 | ||
| Person J | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x82b9a2…1f53 | ||
| Person K | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x065912…4739 | ||
| Person L | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe6757b…e699 | ||
| Person M | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe46227…debc | ||
| Person N | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x2538b3…58f6 | ||
| Person O | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x431489…ef1b | ||
| Person P | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x7e4293…aa05 | ||
| Person Q | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x64383f…5e59 | ||
| Person R | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x29bb89…6546 | ||
| Person S | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x28944f…c181 | ||
| Person T | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x8358e4…870a | ||
| Person U | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x155d85…9f88 | ||
| Person V | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x894a7d…c9a7 | ||
| Person W | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x03ba8c…193a | ||
| Person X | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x247599…7db7 | ||
| Person Y | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xfe894d…54b9 | ||
| Person Z | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x0207d3…51bd | ||
| Person AA | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x130fce…29b8 | ||
| Person AB | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x6acc63…78d7 | ||
| Person AC | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x74354c…849d | ||
| Person AD | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x7aaa39…2875 | ||
| Person AE | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x8399b1…979b | ||
| Person AF | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x5c0fc6…fabb | ||
| Person AG | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb7766b…d234 | ||
| Person AH | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xf2e4a7…e127 | ||
| Person AI | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x4b003b…1666 | ||
| Person AJ | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xcb68fc…4963 | ||
| Person AK | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x58e1ee…e844 | ||
| Person AL | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1e5469…2959 | ||
| Person AM | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x37a57a…c3ca | ||
| Person AN | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x924e7b…f135 | ||
| Person AO | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xf0068e…9c81 | ||
| Person AP | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x66b8d0…729c | ||
| Person AQ | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x3bc879…cb2c | ||
| Person AR | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x499673…80e5 | ||
| Someone else | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x3bf4f1…956e | ||
| William Clouston | 2027-06-30 | 1.5% | $32 | $6.6K | B | 0x12e830…2626 | ||
| John Stevens | 2027-06-30 | 1.2% | $32 | $5.4K | B | 0x0aedcc…8eff | ||
| Kai Stephens | 2027-06-30 | 0.9% | — | $1.7K | B | 0x5f6c76…9551 | ||
| Rees Cowne | 2027-06-30 | 0.2% | — | $2.0K | B | 0x0d815d…65a8 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' listed names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (4) · stated precedence rule
tendringdc.gov.uk committed source parliament.uk venue-listed Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) from rules text the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/) from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? | polymarket | 2026-08-14 | 100% |
| NO | Will Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election? | polymarket | 2026-08-14 | 0% |
| NO | Will Giles Watling get second place in the Clacton by-election? | polymarket | 2026-08-14 | 0% |
| NO | Will Jovan Owusu-Nepaul get second place in the Clacton by-election? | polymarket | 2026-08-14 | 0% |
| NO | Will Matthew Bensilum get second place in the Clacton by-election? | polymarket | 2026-08-14 | 0% |
| NO | Will Natasha Osben get second place in the Clacton by-election? | polymarket | 2026-08-14 | 0% |
| NO | Will Tony Mack get second place in the Clacton by-election? | polymarket | 2026-08-14 | 0% |
| NO | Will Andrew Pemberton get second place in the Clacton by-election? | polymarket | 2026-08-14 | 0% |
| NO | Will Laurence Fox get second place in the Clacton by-election? | polymarket | 2026-08-14 | 0% |
| NO | Will Piers Corbyn get second place in the Clacton by-election? | polymarket | 2026-08-14 | 0% |
| NO | Will Adham Alkhatip get second place in the Clacton by-election? | polymarket | 2026-08-14 | 0% |
| NO | Will Luke Worley get second place in the Clacton by-election? | polymarket | 2026-08-14 | 0% |
| NO | Will Pamela Walford get second place in the Clacton by-election? | polymarket | 2026-08-14 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (13 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/clacton-by-election-2nd-place-20260707214539733/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/clacton-by-election-2nd-place-20260707214539733 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("clacton-by-election-2nd-place-20260707214539733") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-3F0FJ985D9",
"slug": "clacton-by-election-2nd-place-20260707214539733",
"question": "Will the second-place finisher in the Clacton by-election receive fewer than 10,000 votes?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"uk-politics",
"clacton",
"2026",
"by-election"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 53,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 482070,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "tendringdc.gov.uk",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "tendringdc.gov.uk",
"url": "https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "parliament.uk",
"url": "https://www.parliament.uk/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}