Will Count Binface receive at least 5% of the vote in the Clacton by-election? [ resolves 2026-08 – 2027-06 ]
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 10% | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | $1.5K | $111K | B | 0x57386f…e1e3 | ||
| 30–40% | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | $1.6K | $29K | B | 0x8bac22…fb53 | ||
| ≥ 40% | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | $10 | $22K | B | 0x579b03…7ea8 | ||
| 10–20% | 2027-06-30 | 45.0% | $1.6K | $46K | B | 0x37eb55…8d04 | ||
| 20–30% | 2027-06-30 | 34.0% | $839 | $47K | B | 0x55255d…7e51 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Count Binface wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (4) · stated precedence rule
tendringdc.gov.uk committed source parliament.uk venue-listed Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) from rules text UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/) from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Count Binface win 30–40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | polymarket | 2026-08-14 | 0% |
| NO | Will Count Binface win at least 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | polymarket | 2026-08-14 | 0% |
| NO | Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | polymarket | 2026-08-14 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (3 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/clacton-by-election-count-binface-vote-20260708142507718/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/clacton-by-election-count-binface-vote-20260708142507718 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("clacton-by-election-count-binface-vote-20260708142507718") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-JVPN6TVVT1",
"slug": "clacton-by-election-count-binface-vote-20260708142507718",
"question": "Will Count Binface receive at least 5% of the vote in the Clacton by-election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"uk-parliament",
"clacton",
"2026",
"celebrity-candidate"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 255508,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "tendringdc.gov.uk",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "tendringdc.gov.uk",
"url": "https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "parliament.uk",
"url": "https://www.parliament.uk/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}