Will the Clacton by-election margin of victory be less than 5 percentage points? [ resolves 2027-06-30 (342D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 60% | 2027-06-30 | 34.0% | $299 | $30K | A | 0x37c67f…6139 | ||
| Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60% | 2027-06-30 | 33.8% | $41 | $7.3K | A | 0xf71123…0080 | ||
| Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 20% and 40% | 2027-06-30 | 23.5% | $77 | $5.5K | A | 0x3a136a…6633 | ||
| ≤ 20% | 2027-06-30 | 7.2% | $106 | $6.4K | A | 0x0a8703…0baf | ||
| Will Count Binface win the 2026 Clacton by-election by any margin | 2027-06-30 | 4.8% | $115 | $4.8K | A | 0xb79c53…76cc | ||
| Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Clacton by-election | 2027-06-30 | 4.6% | $59 | $6.1K | A | 0xcdf3b9…b3fd |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (4) · stated precedence rule
- tendringdc.gov.uk source of record venue-listed
- parliament.uk venue-listed
- Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) from rules text · editorial
- UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/) from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/clacton-by-election-margin-of-victory-20260709153837820/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/clacton-by-election-margin-of-victory-20260709153837820 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("clacton-by-election-margin-of-victory-20260709153837820") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5QHXW1L444",
"slug": "clacton-by-election-margin-of-victory-20260709153837820",
"question": "Will the Clacton by-election margin of victory be less than 5 percentage points?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"uk-politics",
"by-election",
"clacton",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 59760,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "tendringdc.gov.uk",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "tendringdc.gov.uk",
"url": "https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "parliament.uk",
"url": "https://www.parliament.uk/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}