Will the Clacton by-election turnout be above 50%? [ resolves 2026-08-13 (9D) ]
polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Between 20,000-30,000 | 2026-08-13 | 67.0% | $568 | $5.2K | B | 0xa19bd9…fcf8 | ||
| Between 30,000-40,000 | 2026-08-13 | 23.0% | $120 | $7.6K | B | 0x745f15…cab3 | ||
| Between 10,000-20,000 | 2026-08-13 | 5.3% | $310 | $11K | B | 0x368cfa…8fcf | ||
| Between 40,000-50,000 | 2026-08-13 | 4.3% | $69 | $4.0K | B | 0x276525…2e05 | ||
| < 10,000 | 2026-08-13 | 0.1% | — | $982 | B | 0x508497…ab47 | ||
| At least 60,000 | 2026-08-13 | 0.2% | $65 | $995 | B | 0x0bee66…31c8 | ||
| Between 50,000-60,000 | 2026-08-13 | 0.1% | $65 | $745 | B | 0x289281…16d8 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held on August 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 Clacton by-election, including rejected ballots.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (4) · stated precedence rule
- tendringdc.gov.uk source of record venue-listed
- parliament.uk venue-listed
- Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) from rules text · editorial
- UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/) from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/clacton-by-election-turnout-20260717155703438/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/clacton-by-election-turnout-20260717155703438 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("clacton-by-election-turnout-20260717155703438") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZYR7G1S9V3",
"slug": "clacton-by-election-turnout-20260717155703438",
"question": "Will the Clacton by-election turnout be above 50%?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"uk-politics",
"clacton",
"voter-turnout",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 29995,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 71,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "tendringdc.gov.uk",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "tendringdc.gov.uk",
"url": "https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "parliament.uk",
"url": "https://www.parliament.uk/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}