Will the Clacton by-election occur? [ resolves 2027-06-30 (342D) ]

polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot

polymarket 52 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Nigel Farage	2027-06-30	96.1%	$5.6K	$1.00M	B	`0x95a7c8…7ab9`
Count Binface	2027-06-30	4.3%	$28K	$1.72M	B	`0x513bf1…e72d`
Matthew Bensilum	2027-06-30	0.2%	—	$5.2K	B	`0x99f639…1d98`
William Clouston	2027-06-30	0.2%	$1.2K	$4.0K	B	`0xe34e34…489f`
John Stevens	2027-06-30	0.2%	$1.8K	$5.5K	B	`0xbcd4e0…2ca7`
Giles Watling	2027-06-30	0.1%	$200	$5.6K	B	`0x29396c…0a58`
Jovan Owusu-Nepaul	2027-06-30	0.1%	—	$4.8K	B	`0x6c4431…bd25`
Natasha Osben	2027-06-30	0.1%	$199	$5.2K	B	`0xeced5b…8057`
Tony Mack	2027-06-30	0.1%	$200	$5.2K	B	`0x9c9bd0…2156`
Andrew Pemberton	2027-06-30	0.1%	$300	$6.4K	B	`0x3319ac…6082`
Person D	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x7216e5…aa85`
Person E	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x7b1b1e…a381`
Person F	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x8cfcfb…8ce9`
Person G	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x1299ab…b4f4`
Person H	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x701b69…53f1`
Person I	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x98656d…fa3f`
Person J	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x26308b…271a`
Person K	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x8bb63c…ebda`
Person L	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xdb00b9…8555`
Person M	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x49ced7…7298`
Person N	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x855377…7743`
Person O	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x8365d6…90f5`
Person P	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xc14640…a8c4`
Person Q	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xd6b47b…1fb4`
Person R	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xd4d0ac…14ba`
Person S	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x183b82…11c9`
Person T	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x3c9131…1ad5`
Person U	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x0b1447…0d38`
Person V	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xac3a15…c317`
Person W	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x9088bb…0ccb`
Person X	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x4b34c1…ca40`
Person Y	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xb2d889…6538`
Person Z	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x83a7da…ba0b`
Person AA	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xb37d82…41b8`
Person AB	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x344127…d675`
Person AC	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x38f7d4…9ede`
Person AD	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x0232f2…1e34`
Person AE	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xb9104a…a356`
Person AF	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xdb297e…6f1a`
Person AG	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xce86c4…4042`
Person AH	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x7158e9…68c5`
Person AI	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x498b48…2d8a`
Person AJ	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x476ae9…9c91`
Person AK	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xb67bba…a0d2`
Person AL	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x422061…4641`
Person AM	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x6a5c6d…503d`
Person AN	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x74d476…2249`
Person AO	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x75f120…0637`
Person AP	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xa79c0f…068c`
Person AQ	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x9fbe46…2f63`
Person AR	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x32c94a…67a3`
Someone else	2027-06-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xb138be…2e3b`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	not provided	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 52 markets · share this text

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).

platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned

sources (4) · stated precedence rule

tendringdc.gov.uk source of record venue-listed
parliament.uk venue-listed
Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) from rules text · editorial
UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/) from rules text · editorial

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/clacton-by-election-winner-20260707143521303/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/clacton-by-election-winner-20260707143521303`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("clacton-by-election-winner-20260707143521303")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-KBJNGV3FG3",
  "slug": "clacton-by-election-winner-20260707143521303",
  "question": "Will the Clacton by-election occur?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "uk-politics",
    "clacton",
    "2027",
    "by-elections"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 52,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 2767352,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
  "rcg_score": 68,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "tendringdc.gov.uk",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "tendringdc.gov.uk",
      "url": "https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "parliament.uk",
      "url": "https://www.parliament.uk/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/)",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/)",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →