CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,860 EVENTS / ~39,200 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will the Clacton by-election be held by August 2026? [ resolved 2026-08-13 ]

polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 52 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Nigel Farage 2026-08-13 100.0%
$64K $1.38M
B 0x95a7c8…7ab9
Giles Watling 2026-08-13 0.0%
$5.8K
B 0x29396c…0a58
Jovan Owusu-Nepaul 2026-08-13 0.0%
$4.8K
B 0x6c4431…bd25
Matthew Bensilum 2026-08-13 0.0%
$5.4K
B 0x99f639…1d98
Natasha Osben 2026-08-13 0.0%
$5.3K
B 0xeced5b…8057
Tony Mack 2026-08-13 0.0%
$5.3K
B 0x9c9bd0…2156
Andrew Pemberton 2026-08-13 0.0%
$6.6K
B 0x3319ac…6082
Count Binface 2026-08-13 0.0%
$93K $2.22M
B 0x513bf1…e72d
William Clouston 2026-08-13 0.0%
$5.8K
B 0xe34e34…489f
John Stevens 2026-08-13 0.0%
$7.7K
B 0xbcd4e0…2ca7
Pamela Walford 2026-08-13 0.0%
$236
B 0x7216e5…aa85
Person E 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0x7b1b1e…a381
Person F 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0x8cfcfb…8ce9
Person G 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0x1299ab…b4f4
Person H 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0x701b69…53f1
Person I 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0x98656d…fa3f
Person J 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0x26308b…271a
Person K 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0x8bb63c…ebda
Person L 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0xdb00b9…8555
Person M 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0x49ced7…7298
Person N 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0x855377…7743
Person O 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0x8365d6…90f5
Person P 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0xc14640…a8c4
Person Q 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0xd6b47b…1fb4
Person R 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0xd4d0ac…14ba
Person S 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0x183b82…11c9
Person T 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0x3c9131…1ad5
Person U 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0x0b1447…0d38
Person V 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0xac3a15…c317
Person W 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0x9088bb…0ccb
Person X 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0x4b34c1…ca40
Person Y 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0xb2d889…6538
Person Z 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0x83a7da…ba0b
Person AA 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0xb37d82…41b8
Person AB 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0x344127…d675
Person AC 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0x38f7d4…9ede
Person AD 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0x0232f2…1e34
Person AE 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0xb9104a…a356
Person AF 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0xdb297e…6f1a
Person AG 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0xce86c4…4042
Person AH 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0x7158e9…68c5
Person AI 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0x498b48…2d8a
Person AJ 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0x476ae9…9c91
Person AK 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0xb67bba…a0d2
Person AL 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0x422061…4641
Person AM 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0x6a5c6d…503d
Person AN 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0x74d476…2249
Person AO 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0x75f120…0637
Person AP 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0xa79c0f…068c
Person AQ 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0x9fbe46…2f63
Person AR 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0x32c94a…67a3
Someone else 2026-08-13 0.0%
B 0xb138be…2e3b
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
polymarket Whitelisted Proposers not provided not provided Optimistic Oracle (UMA) Other
verbatim rules
polymarket 52 markets · share this text
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned
sources (4) · stated precedence rule
tendringdc.gov.uk committed source parliament.uk venue-listed Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) from rules text UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/) from rules text
resolution history
outcome market venue resolved final price
YES Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? polymarket 2026-08-14 100%
NO Will Matthew Bensilum win the Clacton by-election? polymarket 2026-08-14 0%
NO Will Natasha Osben win the Clacton by-election? polymarket 2026-08-14 0%
NO Will Tony Mack win the Clacton by-election? polymarket 2026-08-14 0%
NO Will Andrew Pemberton win the Clacton by-election? polymarket 2026-08-14 0%
NO Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? polymarket 2026-08-14 0%
NO Will William Clouston win the Clacton by-election? polymarket 2026-08-14 0%
NO Will John Stevens win the Clacton by-election? polymarket 2026-08-14 0%
NO Will Pamela Walford win the Clacton by-election? polymarket 2026-08-14 0%
NO Will Giles Watling win the Clacton by-election? polymarket 2026-08-14 0%
NO Will Jovan Owusu-Nepaul win the Clacton by-election? polymarket 2026-08-14 0%
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (11 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/clacton-by-election-winner-20260707143521303/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/clacton-by-election-winner-20260707143521303
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("clacton-by-election-winner-20260707143521303")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-KBJNGV3FG3",
  "slug": "clacton-by-election-winner-20260707143521303",
  "question": "Will the Clacton by-election be held by August 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "uk-politics",
    "clacton",
    "2026",
    "by-election"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 52,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 3648763,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
  "rcg_score": 65,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "tendringdc.gov.uk",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "tendringdc.gov.uk",
      "url": "https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "parliament.uk",
      "url": "https://www.parliament.uk/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/)",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/)",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →