Will the Clacton by-election be held by August 2026? [ resolved 2026-08-13 ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 52 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nigel Farage | 2026-08-13 | 100.0% | $64K | $1.38M | B | 0x95a7c8…7ab9 | ||
| Giles Watling | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | $5.8K | B | 0x29396c…0a58 | ||
| Jovan Owusu-Nepaul | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | $4.8K | B | 0x6c4431…bd25 | ||
| Matthew Bensilum | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | $5.4K | B | 0x99f639…1d98 | ||
| Natasha Osben | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | $5.3K | B | 0xeced5b…8057 | ||
| Tony Mack | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | $5.3K | B | 0x9c9bd0…2156 | ||
| Andrew Pemberton | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | $6.6K | B | 0x3319ac…6082 | ||
| Count Binface | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | $93K | $2.22M | B | 0x513bf1…e72d | ||
| William Clouston | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | $5.8K | B | 0xe34e34…489f | ||
| John Stevens | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | $7.7K | B | 0xbcd4e0…2ca7 | ||
| Pamela Walford | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | $236 | B | 0x7216e5…aa85 | ||
| Person E | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x7b1b1e…a381 | ||
| Person F | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x8cfcfb…8ce9 | ||
| Person G | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1299ab…b4f4 | ||
| Person H | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x701b69…53f1 | ||
| Person I | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x98656d…fa3f | ||
| Person J | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x26308b…271a | ||
| Person K | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x8bb63c…ebda | ||
| Person L | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xdb00b9…8555 | ||
| Person M | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x49ced7…7298 | ||
| Person N | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x855377…7743 | ||
| Person O | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x8365d6…90f5 | ||
| Person P | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xc14640…a8c4 | ||
| Person Q | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd6b47b…1fb4 | ||
| Person R | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd4d0ac…14ba | ||
| Person S | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x183b82…11c9 | ||
| Person T | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x3c9131…1ad5 | ||
| Person U | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x0b1447…0d38 | ||
| Person V | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xac3a15…c317 | ||
| Person W | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x9088bb…0ccb | ||
| Person X | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x4b34c1…ca40 | ||
| Person Y | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb2d889…6538 | ||
| Person Z | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x83a7da…ba0b | ||
| Person AA | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb37d82…41b8 | ||
| Person AB | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x344127…d675 | ||
| Person AC | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x38f7d4…9ede | ||
| Person AD | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x0232f2…1e34 | ||
| Person AE | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb9104a…a356 | ||
| Person AF | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xdb297e…6f1a | ||
| Person AG | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xce86c4…4042 | ||
| Person AH | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x7158e9…68c5 | ||
| Person AI | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x498b48…2d8a | ||
| Person AJ | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x476ae9…9c91 | ||
| Person AK | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb67bba…a0d2 | ||
| Person AL | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x422061…4641 | ||
| Person AM | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x6a5c6d…503d | ||
| Person AN | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x74d476…2249 | ||
| Person AO | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x75f120…0637 | ||
| Person AP | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa79c0f…068c | ||
| Person AQ | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x9fbe46…2f63 | ||
| Person AR | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x32c94a…67a3 | ||
| Someone else | 2026-08-13 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb138be…2e3b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (4) · stated precedence rule
tendringdc.gov.uk committed source parliament.uk venue-listed Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) from rules text UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/) from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? | polymarket | 2026-08-14 | 100% |
| NO | Will Matthew Bensilum win the Clacton by-election? | polymarket | 2026-08-14 | 0% |
| NO | Will Natasha Osben win the Clacton by-election? | polymarket | 2026-08-14 | 0% |
| NO | Will Tony Mack win the Clacton by-election? | polymarket | 2026-08-14 | 0% |
| NO | Will Andrew Pemberton win the Clacton by-election? | polymarket | 2026-08-14 | 0% |
| NO | Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? | polymarket | 2026-08-14 | 0% |
| NO | Will William Clouston win the Clacton by-election? | polymarket | 2026-08-14 | 0% |
| NO | Will John Stevens win the Clacton by-election? | polymarket | 2026-08-14 | 0% |
| NO | Will Pamela Walford win the Clacton by-election? | polymarket | 2026-08-14 | 0% |
| NO | Will Giles Watling win the Clacton by-election? | polymarket | 2026-08-14 | 0% |
| NO | Will Jovan Owusu-Nepaul win the Clacton by-election? | polymarket | 2026-08-14 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (11 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/clacton-by-election-winner-20260707143521303/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/clacton-by-election-winner-20260707143521303 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("clacton-by-election-winner-20260707143521303") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-KBJNGV3FG3",
"slug": "clacton-by-election-winner-20260707143521303",
"question": "Will the Clacton by-election be held by August 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"uk-politics",
"clacton",
"2026",
"by-election"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 52,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 3648763,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 65,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "tendringdc.gov.uk",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "tendringdc.gov.uk",
"url": "https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "parliament.uk",
"url": "https://www.parliament.uk/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}