Will the Democratic Party win the U.S. House in the next election? [ resolves 2027-02-01 (181D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Library of Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Democratic Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. House. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the Speaker of the House on February 1, 2027.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Library of Congress" sources (1) · stated precedence rule
Library of Congress committed source
recent wire items
- Democrats heavily favored to win the House in 2026 Kalshi 90%
- Kalshi puts 90% odds on the Democratic Party winning the US House in the 2026 midterm elections.
- The debate activity described by Fox News, with GOP defending majorities, is at odds with this pricing: the market is strongly fading Republican retention of the House.
- The companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451) at 62% for Republicans controlling at least one chamber implies the market sees Senate retention as plausible even as the House flips.
- Resolution is via the Library of Congress; the contract settles on official chamber control determination after certification.
- Democrats winning the US House climbs near 90 percent Kalshi 90%
- Kalshi prices a 90% probability that the Democratic Party wins the US House in the 2026 midterms.
- Despite Speaker Mike Johnson's public prediction that Republicans will hold the House, the Kalshi contract heavily favors a Democratic takeover.
- The 62% Kalshi probability on Republicans controlling at least one chamber implies the Senate is the GOP's likely lifeline in a split Congress outcome.
- Resolves via Library of Congress certification of House election results; the 90% pricing reflects the structural drag of a 33% presidential approval rating on House incumbents.
- Democrats winning the House in 2026 stays heavily favored Kalshi 90%
- Kalshi prices 90% odds that Democrats win the US House in the next election, resolving via Library of Congress official records.
- Debate clashes and Trump's record-low approval ratings are consistent with the market's strong tilt toward a Democratic House takeover.
- The GOP retains-one-chamber contract (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451) sits at 62%, implying the market prices a split Congress as the dominant scenario with the Senate remaining Republican.
- Resolves via Library of Congress certification; contested or delayed results in close districts could push resolution past Election Night.
- Democrats heavily favored to win the US House in 2026 Kalshi 91%
- Kalshi prices an 91% chance Democrats win the US House in 2026, a strongly favored outcome.
- Trump's conflicting mail-in voting messaging could suppress Republican turnout; the market is not fading the Democratic advantage.
- Kalshi's separate contract (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451) puts only 65% on Republicans holding at least one chamber, consistent with Democrats favored in the House.
- Resolves via Library of Congress certification of House party control after the 2026 midterms.
- Democrats heavily favored to retake the House in November Kalshi 89%
- Kalshi prices Democrats winning the US House at 89%, a heavily favored outcome one month before the November 3 midterms.
- Republican mail-in voting confusion and candidate distancing from Trump reported by Reuters aligns with, not against, this Democratic-favored pricing.
- The Kalshi contract on Republicans controlling at least one chamber (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451) sits at 62%, suggesting the Senate remains the likely Republican backstop.
- The Polymarket contract on Senate control (CM-EVT-M9WJY06T90) prices 63% for one party, the cross-venue consistency reinforces a split-Congress base case.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/controlh-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/controlh-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("controlh-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FV8MR86S63",
"slug": "controlh-2026",
"question": "Will the Democratic Party win the U.S. House in the next election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-politics",
"house-elections",
"2026-midterms",
"party-control",
"electoral-outcomes"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 8740204,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 66,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Library of Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}