Will the Democratic Party win the U.S. House in the next election? [ resolves 2027-02-01 (181D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Library of Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Democratic Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. House. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the Speaker of the House on February 1, 2027.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Library of Congress" sources (1) · stated precedence rule
Library of Congress committed source
recent wire items
- Democrats taking back the House stays heavily favored Kalshi 84%
- Kalshi puts 84% probability on Democrats winning the U.S. House in the next election, a strongly favored outcome.
- The White House staff exodus, including Leavitt's departure, is consistent with the market's heavily Democratic lean but does not by itself move the needle on pricing.
- A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451) puts only 47% on Republicans holding at least one chamber, implying the Senate is the GOP's main remaining path to relevance.
- Kalshi resolves via Library of Congress records; the contract settles on official chamber control, so partial gains without a majority flip would resolve NO.
- Democrats favored to retake the House, odds stay high Kalshi 84%
- Kalshi puts 84% odds on Democrats winning the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms, resolves via Library of Congress.
- Intra-party Republican anger over new tariffs, combined with voters ranking affordability as the top concern, is consistent with the strong Democratic pricing.
- Separately, the Kalshi 'blue tsunami' contract (CM-EVT-6CY3Y4C610) sits at only 39%, suggesting markets see a Democratic House win as likely but not a sweep scenario.
- Resolves via Library of Congress certification of House majority composition after November 2026 elections.
- Democrats heavily favored to win the House in November Kalshi 85%
- Kalshi prices Democrats winning the U.S. House at 85%, a strong favorite position heading into the November midterms.
- The Kushner-Jeffries meeting underscores Republican concern about House control, consistent with the market's heavily Democratic lean.
- A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451) puts Republicans controlling at least one chamber at 47%, implying the Senate is the GOP's more viable path.
- Resolves via Library of Congress official chamber composition record after the 2026 election.
- Democrats taking back the House stays heavily favored at 86% Kalshi 86%
- Kalshi prices an 86% probability that the Democratic Party wins the US House in the next election, resolves via Library of Congress.
- Election-security concerns and state-level Democratic mobilization are consistent with a market strongly favoring a Democratic House flip.
- Companion Kalshi contract on Republicans holding at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms sits at 47%, suggesting Senate control is far less certain.
- Polymarket contract on a blue wave in 2026 is at 76%, broadly consistent with the Kalshi House reading and pointing to a Democratic sweep scenario as the market consensus.
- Democrats firmly favored to win the US House in midterms Kalshi 83%
- The Kalshi prediction market prices an 83% chance Democrats win the US House in the next election.
- An 8-point Democratic generic ballot lead from CNN is broadly consistent with the high Kalshi probability on a House flip.
- The Kalshi contract on Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats after the midterms sits at 50%, suggesting a more mixed down-ballot picture.
- The Library of Congress is the named resolution source; the contract settles on official certified election results.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/controlh-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/controlh-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("controlh-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FV8MR86S63",
"slug": "controlh-2026",
"question": "Will the Democratic Party win the U.S. House in the next election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-politics",
"house-elections",
"2026-midterms",
"party-control",
"electoral-outcomes"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 8740204,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 66,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Library of Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}