Will the Cook Islands United Party win the most seats in the Cook Islands Parliamentary Election? [ resolves 2026-08-12 (20D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 30 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Islands Party | 2026-08-12 | 89.0% | $698 | $34K | C | 0xf7eced…6af1 | ||
| Cook Islands United Party | 2026-08-12 | 2.2% | — | $2.5K | C | 0xf28e32…68d5 | ||
| Democratic Party | 2026-08-12 | 2.0% | — | $5.6K | C | 0xf7d52d…b65b | ||
| Party A | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x911994…b4cf | ||
| Party B | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2960c9…7fca | ||
| Party C | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3ce266…a753 | ||
| Party D | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe4e1c5…deac | ||
| Party E | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x82540a…0aa0 | ||
| Party F | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb822b9…ab8a | ||
| Party G | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfa326c…b1e3 | ||
| Party H | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4820ca…d342 | ||
| Party I | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x64be77…e092 | ||
| Party J | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe5ce6d…89b6 | ||
| Party K | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3e16f3…8424 | ||
| Party L | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd5c910…f95e | ||
| Party M | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x645e50…2a38 | ||
| Party N | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa65aa9…1185 | ||
| Party O | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xedfe2a…b866 | ||
| Party P | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7d3610…fe00 | ||
| Party Q | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6120b3…e9ac | ||
| Party R | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x11c862…9783 | ||
| Party S | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5ad681…9808 | ||
| Party T | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd6fe61…e18e | ||
| Party U | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xcbc477…c69f | ||
| Party V | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xebb28f…5de0 | ||
| Party W | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3f1299…fe8f | ||
| Party X | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x421f3b…fc45 | ||
| Party Y | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbb3c02…6a46 | ||
| Party Z | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3142ad…f9a7 | ||
| Another party | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8e61c8…7274 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Parliamentary elections to elect the Parliament of the Cook Islands are scheduled to take place on August 12, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of the Cook Islands as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose candidates received the greater combined number of valid votes across all constituencies. If multiple tied parties also received the same combined number of valid votes, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
A member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Cook Islands government.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
- Cook Islands government from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/cook-islands-parliamentary-election-party-winner-20260715185920487/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/cook-islands-parliamentary-election-party-winner-20260715185920487 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("cook-islands-parliamentary-election-party-winner-20260715185920487") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GMQHFKM245",
"slug": "cook-islands-parliamentary-election-party-winner-20260715185920487",
"question": "Will the Cook Islands United Party win the most seats in the Cook Islands Parliamentary Election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"cook-islands",
"parliamentary-election-2026",
"oceania",
"party-politics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 30,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 41808,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Cook Islands government",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}