Will Core CPI Month-over-Month increase in July 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-12 (8D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 0% | 2026-08-12 | 5.4% | $350 | $4.9K | A | 0xd46a37…41bc | ||
| 0.1% | 2026-08-12 | 20.0% | $118 | $21K | A | 0x214895…4b2f | ||
| 0.2% | 2026-08-12 | 50.4% | $800 | $31K | A | 0xb07b92…52d1 | ||
| 0.3% | 2026-08-12 | 26.4% | $320 | $19K | A | 0x2f63bb…b87c | ||
| 0.4% | 2026-08-12 | 1.9% | $95 | $5.0K | A | 0x997c74…2ec8 | ||
| 0.5% | 2026-08-12 | 0.2% | $105 | $3.2K | A | 0x93f7fd…80f1 | ||
| ≥ 0.6% | 2026-08-12 | 2.1% | $95 | $2.9K | A | 0xab285b…17ae |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in July 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/core-cpi-mom-july-2026-20260705181328287/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/core-cpi-mom-july-2026-20260705181328287 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("core-cpi-mom-july-2026-20260705181328287") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-R0NCKDGX05",
"slug": "core-cpi-mom-july-2026-20260705181328287",
"question": "Will Core CPI Month-over-Month increase in July 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"economy",
"inflation",
"cpi",
"us-economic-data",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 87544,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "bls.gov",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "bls.gov",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/schedule",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "BLS Consumer Price Index report",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "official monthly BLS CPI news release",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}