Will Discord’s market cap be between $8B and $11B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? [ resolves 2027-12-31 (526D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discord’s market cap be between $8B and $11B at market close on IPO day | 2027-12-31 | 37.0% | — | $7.9K | C | 0xc9fccf…ae4b | ||
| Discord’s market cap be between $14B and $17B at market close on IPO day | 2027-12-31 | 28.2% | — | $292 | C | 0x3ea5d3…4fe5 | ||
| Discord’s market cap be between $17B and $20B at market close on IPO day | 2027-12-31 | 22.0% | — | $325 | C | 0x9b0a62…1b5e | ||
| ≤ $5,000,000,000 | 2027-12-31 | 18.0% | — | $413 | C | 0xa4bff7…57da | ||
| Discord’s market cap be between $5B and $8B at market close on IPO day | 2027-12-31 | 14.5% | — | $492 | C | 0x3ad1c1…ab47 | ||
| Discord’s market cap be between $11B and $14B at market close on IPO day | 2027-12-31 | 12.8% | — | $336 | C | 0x1520e6…6655 | ||
| Discord not IPO | 2027-12-31 | 9.9% | — | $302 | C | 0x9438a0…2af7 | ||
| ≥ $20,000,000,000 | 2027-12-31 | 6.0% | — | $171 | C | 0x5feddc…bdec |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official company filings from rules text · editorial
- SEC filings from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/discord-ipo-closing-market-cap-20260626185933220/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/discord-ipo-closing-market-cap-20260626185933220 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("discord-ipo-closing-market-cap-20260626185933220") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-SXNSY8MR50",
"slug": "discord-ipo-closing-market-cap-20260626185933220",
"question": "Will Discord’s market cap be between $8B and $11B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"tech",
"finance",
"discord",
"ipo",
"market-cap"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 10226,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 72,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official company filings",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "SEC filings",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}