Will the ECB main refinancing operations rate be below 2.5% in September 2026? [ resolves 2026-09-10 (49D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A 50+ bps decrease | 2026-09-10 | 0.1% | $1.4K | $13K | A | 0xc6f10b…b626 | ||
| A 25 bps decrease | 2026-09-10 | 1.8% | $1.3K | $21K | A | 0x240d68…a262 | ||
| No change | 2026-09-10 | 16.0% | $5.4K | $37K | A | 0xe5c79f…31ac | ||
| A 25 bps increase | 2026-09-10 | 81.0% | $2.2K | $42K | A | 0x1e43a5…ca8a | ||
| A 50+ bps increase | 2026-09-10 | 4.0% | $1.4K | $24K | A | 0x268e60…8ee7 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html sources (4) · single authority
- ecb.europa.eu venue-listed
- official information from the European Central Bank from rules text · editorial
- the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting from rules text · editorial
- official European Central Bank calendar from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ecb-interest-rates-september-2026-20260616222636097/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/ecb-interest-rates-september-2026-20260616222636097 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("ecb-interest-rates-september-2026-20260616222636097") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-JD9TMQJCF3",
"slug": "ecb-interest-rates-september-2026-20260616222636097",
"question": "Will the ECB main refinancing operations rate be below 2.5% in September 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"economy",
"central-banking",
"ecb",
"interest-rates",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 137715,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "European Central Bank",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "ecb.europa.eu",
"url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official information from the European Central Bank",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "official European Central Bank calendar",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}