Will the ECB raise interest rates by 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]
ECB rate hike in 2026?
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECB rate hike in 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 97.5% | $482 | $125K | C | 0x26e6aa…173f |
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
polymarket.description → https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ecb-rate-hike-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/ecb-rate-hike-in-2026.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("ecb-rate-hike-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-T66K00LRT0",
"slug": "ecb-rate-hike-in-2026",
"question": "Will the ECB raise interest rates by 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"economic-policy",
"central-banking",
"euro-area",
"monetary-policy",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 125316,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}