Will Elon Musk's net worth exceed $200 billion by June 30, 2024? [ resolves 2026-06-30 (27D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by strike
polymarket 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $720b and $740b on June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 9.2% | $305 | $1.6K | C | 0x8ae4eb…da45 | ||
| ≤ $660 | 2026-06-30 | 8.4% | $379 | $2.3K | C | 0x21f354…bb63 | ||
| ≥ $800 | 2026-06-30 | 83.0% | $1.6K | $3.9K | C | 0x8fd8fa…dd5b | ||
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $740b and $760b on June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 6.9% | $214 | $1.8K | C | 0xde348e…2834 | ||
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $700b and $720b on June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 5.5% | $689 | $1.9K | C | 0xfd45c2…0a44 | ||
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $680b and $700b on June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 1.9% | $750 | $2.0K | C | 0xe0cf83…c309 | ||
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $680b on June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 1.7% | $256 | $1.3K | C | 0x124a7d…336f | ||
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $760b and $780b on June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 1.3% | $198 | $1.7K | C | 0x7f8ded…a0f0 | ||
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $780b and $800b on June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 1.0% | $326 | $1.6K | C | 0x092a1c…f005 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | bloomberg.com | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the value of Elon Musk's net worth on June 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for June 30, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/elon-musk-net-worth-on-june-30-138/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/elon-musk-net-worth-on-june-30-138.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("elon-musk-net-worth-on-june-30-138") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GGSHQGLR04",
"slug": "elon-musk-net-worth-on-june-30-138",
"question": "Will Elon Musk's net worth exceed $200 billion by June 30, 2024?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"economy",
"tech",
"wealth-measurement",
"elon-musk",
"net-worth"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 17940,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 50,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "bloomberg.com",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}