Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-05 (1D) ]
polymarket: [B] reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 2026-08-05 | 59.0% | $25K | $43K | B | 0xd04cfc…75f7 | ||
| <40 | 2026-08-05 | 31.8% | $51K | $70K | B | 0xa1b536…21af | ||
| 65-89 | 2026-08-05 | 9.0% | $37K | $53K | B | 0x331e84…7800 | ||
| 90-114 | 2026-08-05 | 0.9% | $23K | $35K | B | 0xb637f2…9158 | ||
| 115-139 | 2026-08-05 | 0.2% | $24K | $40K | B | 0x7d7536…fbe1 | ||
| 140-164 | 2026-08-05 | 0.1% | $13K | $23K | B | 0x439082…59ab | ||
| 165-189 | 2026-08-05 | 0.1% | $7.4K | $14K | B | 0x5eb16c…4e22 | ||
| 190-214 | 2026-08-05 | 0.1% | — | $6.6K | B | 0x870eb4…5277 | ||
| 215-239 | 2026-08-05 | 0.1% | — | $5.9K | B | 0xe757d3…3f9f | ||
| 240+ | 2026-08-05 | 0.1% | — | $3.7K | B | 0x38e2b5…8f5a |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | https://x.com/elonmusk | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
platform source field
polymarket.description → "https://x.com/elonmusk" sources (5) · stated precedence rule
- https://x.com/elonmusk venue-listed
- x.com venue-listed
- xtracker.polymarket.com source of record venue-listed
- https://xtracker.polymarket.com from rules text · editorial
- X itself from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-august-3-august-5/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-august-3-august-5 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("elon-musk-of-tweets-august-3-august-5") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-3VSN3YF491",
"slug": "elon-musk-of-tweets-august-3-august-5",
"question": "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elon-musk",
"twitter-activity",
"pop-culture",
"social-media",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 293850,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 58,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
"resolution_source_url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
"url": null,
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "x.com",
"url": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
"url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "X itself",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}