Will Elon Musk post more than X tweets between August 7 and August 14, 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-14 (10D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 26 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 180-199 | 2026-08-14 | 17.0% | $385 | $385 | C | 0xee3b73…bf14 | ||
| 200-219 | 2026-08-14 | 17.0% | $591 | $591 | C | 0x8f6f79…273e | ||
| 220-239 | 2026-08-14 | 16.0% | $398 | $398 | C | 0xac5b17…bbeb | ||
| 240-259 | 2026-08-14 | 14.0% | $526 | $526 | C | 0xfd8c1c…865e | ||
| 160-179 | 2026-08-14 | 12.0% | $429 | $429 | C | 0xb913e9…ea19 | ||
| 260-279 | 2026-08-14 | 8.0% | $245 | $245 | C | 0xcb35c5…4f3f | ||
| 140-159 | 2026-08-14 | 6.0% | $491 | $491 | C | 0x507adf…6ba9 | ||
| 280-299 | 2026-08-14 | 5.0% | $288 | $288 | C | 0x201d8d…09a2 | ||
| 120-139 | 2026-08-14 | 2.6% | $692 | $692 | C | 0xf997fa…25b4 | ||
| 320-339 | 2026-08-14 | 2.3% | $606 | $606 | C | 0x410e20…7486 | ||
| 300-319 | 2026-08-14 | 2.1% | $596 | $596 | C | 0xa1fd87…cb2c | ||
| 340-359 | 2026-08-14 | 1.1% | $317 | $317 | C | 0xd25f61…13bf | ||
| 100-119 | 2026-08-14 | 0.8% | $586 | $586 | C | 0x17bd73…2c44 | ||
| 0-19 | 2026-08-14 | 0.4% | $4.6K | $4.6K | C | 0xa7deae…0f8d | ||
| 80-99 | 2026-08-14 | 0.4% | $369 | $369 | C | 0x490dca…8b55 | ||
| 420-439 | 2026-08-14 | 0.4% | $672 | $672 | C | 0xeb0e57…02ff | ||
| 60-79 | 2026-08-14 | 0.2% | $1.4K | $1.4K | C | 0xa94ae5…18ca | ||
| 20-39 | 2026-08-14 | 0.1% | $2.2K | $2.2K | C | 0x38f0d6…dab4 | ||
| 40-59 | 2026-08-14 | 0.1% | $2.2K | $2.2K | C | 0x3dde8c…9d30 | ||
| 360-379 | 2026-08-14 | 0.1% | $22 | $22 | C | 0x0346b1…d123 | ||
| 380-399 | 2026-08-14 | 0.1% | $122 | $122 | C | 0x0ad78a…e087 | ||
| 400-419 | 2026-08-14 | 0.1% | $22 | $22 | C | 0xc88caa…d07c | ||
| 440-459 | 2026-08-14 | 0.1% | $396 | $396 | C | 0x930c4f…f13a | ||
| 460-479 | 2026-08-14 | 0.1% | $163 | $163 | C | 0xcb0f7d…1a6c | ||
| 480-499 | 2026-08-14 | 0.1% | $283 | $283 | C | 0xee2dac…28be | ||
| 500+ | 2026-08-14 | 0.1% | $512 | $512 | C | 0xf18b0b…2f02 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | https://x.com/elonmusk | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 7 12:00 PM ET to August 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
platform source field
polymarket.description → "https://x.com/elonmusk" sources (5) · stated precedence rule
- https://x.com/elonmusk venue-listed
- x.com venue-listed
- xtracker.polymarket.com source of record venue-listed
- https://xtracker.polymarket.com from rules text · editorial
- X itself from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-august-7-august-14/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-august-7-august-14 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("elon-musk-of-tweets-august-7-august-14") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MTM0KM4MM1",
"slug": "elon-musk-of-tweets-august-7-august-14",
"question": "Will Elon Musk post more than X tweets between August 7 and August 14, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elon-musk",
"twitter-activity",
"social-media",
"pop-culture",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 26,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 19111,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 60,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
"resolution_source_url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
"url": null,
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "x.com",
"url": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
"url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "X itself",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}