CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,330 EVENTS / ~30,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? [ resolved 2026-07-24 ]

Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?

polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 26 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
0-19 2026-07-18 0.1%
$11K
B 0xda3cb3…26f0
20-39 2026-07-19 0.1%
$14K
B 0x975434…eb5e
40-59 2026-07-20 0.1%
$31K
B 0x383acf…8b14
60-79 2026-07-21 0.1%
$111K
B 0x8d3f45…87e7
80-99 2026-07-22 0.1%
$178K
B 0x5968d2…cdd6
100-119 2026-07-22 0.1%
$168K
B 0xc2d433…06f3
120-139 2026-07-22 0.1%
$171K
B 0x43dd97…abf5
140-159 2026-07-23 0.1%
$35K $201K
B 0x314345…436d
200-219 2026-07-24 100.0%
$77K $186K
B 0x06f222…9faf
160-179 2026-07-24 0.0%
$128K $271K
B 0xadf84b…1334
180-199 2026-07-24 0.0%
$47K $150K
B 0x7f69b9…28a5
220-239 2026-07-24 0.0%
$64K $163K
B 0xe8a070…a75b
240-259 2026-07-24 0.0%
$94K $204K
B 0xc162dd…3921
260-279 2026-07-24 0.0%
$82K $196K
B 0x50bf4a…651e
280-299 2026-07-24 0.0%
$30K $141K
B 0x2a6ae2…ac35
300-319 2026-07-24 0.0%
$9.1K $137K
B 0x3300c8…4c88
320-339 2026-07-24 0.0%
$555 $53K
B 0xbb03cd…bbbe
340-359 2026-07-24 0.0%
$52K
B 0x3dcb1a…44f8
360-379 2026-07-24 0.0%
$26K
B 0x9a89be…9a07
380-399 2026-07-24 0.0%
$22K
B 0xf1d9aa…4934
400-419 2026-07-24 0.0%
$49K
B 0xc8f0eb…233f
420-439 2026-07-24 0.0%
$22K
B 0x604404…6618
440-459 2026-07-24 0.0%
$38K
B 0x14891f…e931
460-479 2026-07-24 0.0%
$17K
B 0x6133e4…4b71
480-499 2026-07-24 0.0%
$17K
B 0x320348…6076
500+ 2026-07-24 0.0%
$48K
B 0xff895b…f3f1
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
polymarket Whitelisted Proposers https://x.com/elonmusk not provided Optimistic Oracle (UMA) Other
verbatim rules
polymarket 26 markets · share this text
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 17 12:00 PM ET to July 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
platform source field polymarket.description → "https://x.com/elonmusk"
sources (5) · stated precedence rule
  • https://x.com/elonmusk venue-listed
  • x.com venue-listed
  • xtracker.polymarket.com source of record venue-listed
  • https://xtracker.polymarket.com from rules text · editorial
  • X itself from rules text · editorial
resolution history
outcome market venue resolved final price
YES Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? polymarket 2026-07-24 100%
NO Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? polymarket 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? polymarket 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? polymarket 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? polymarket 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? polymarket 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? polymarket 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? polymarket 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? polymarket 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? polymarket 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? polymarket 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? polymarket 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? polymarket 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? polymarket 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? polymarket 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? polymarket 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? polymarket 2026-07-24 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? polymarket 2026-07-24 0%
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (18 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-july-17-july-24/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-july-17-july-24
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("elon-musk-of-tweets-july-17-july-24")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-NDM5ZP9KG7",
  "slug": "elon-musk-of-tweets-july-17-july-24",
  "question": "Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "pop-culture",
    "politics",
    "social-media-activity",
    "elon-musk",
    "x-platform",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 26,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 2677175,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
  "rcg_score": 68,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "x.com",
      "url": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
      "url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "X itself",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →