Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in July 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-01 (26D) ]
polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 51 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 920-959 | 2026-08-01 | 7.5% | $625 | $2.1K | B | 0x11f690…9597 | ||
| 840-879 | 2026-08-01 | 7.1% | $10 | $2.1K | B | 0x340198…7700 | ||
| 880-919 | 2026-08-01 | 7.1% | $65 | $3.0K | B | 0x2df433…c9e4 | ||
| 800-839 | 2026-08-01 | 7.0% | $499 | $5.4K | B | 0xc3bf74…63dd | ||
| 720-759 | 2026-08-01 | 6.0% | $459 | $2.3K | B | 0xaf74c5…5b6d | ||
| 760-799 | 2026-08-01 | 6.0% | $519 | $2.3K | B | 0x5d535b…d382 | ||
| 960-999 | 2026-08-01 | 6.0% | $45 | $1.6K | B | 0x4126bb…e200 | ||
| 1000-1039 | 2026-08-01 | 5.7% | $18 | $1.9K | B | 0xab767c…5ca4 | ||
| 1400+ | 2026-08-01 | 5.0% | $46 | $2.6K | B | 0x13f69a…5633 | ||
| 680-719 | 2026-08-01 | 4.8% | $62 | $3.0K | B | 0x92745a…87c4 | ||
| 1040-1079 | 2026-08-01 | 4.5% | — | $1.7K | B | 0x5462f4…a69f | ||
| 640-679 | 2026-08-01 | 4.0% | $30 | $4.7K | B | 0x976391…0bd8 | ||
| 1080-1119 | 2026-08-01 | 4.0% | $150 | $2.0K | B | 0xc70fef…6060 | ||
| 600-639 | 2026-08-01 | 3.2% | $55 | $3.0K | B | 0xc2eeb2…5a19 | ||
| 1120-1159 | 2026-08-01 | 3.1% | — | $2.6K | B | 0x50ef2d…2223 | ||
| 1200-1239 | 2026-08-01 | 2.4% | — | $2.1K | B | 0xf425d3…408a | ||
| 1160-1199 | 2026-08-01 | 2.3% | $35 | $2.1K | B | 0x9d6d79…f872 | ||
| 1240-1279 | 2026-08-01 | 1.7% | — | $1.6K | B | 0xdb91c4…ae35 | ||
| 1280-1319 | 2026-08-01 | 1.4% | — | $2.0K | B | 0x6beb78…5a62 | ||
| 1360-1399 | 2026-08-01 | 1.4% | $71 | $2.0K | B | 0xa71f8c…01e3 | ||
| 1320-1359 | 2026-08-01 | 1.3% | — | $2.0K | B | 0x332ac5…8193 | ||
| 580-599 | 2026-08-01 | 1.2% | $200 | $1.4K | B | 0x8ba64f…69cc | ||
| 560-579 | 2026-08-01 | 0.8% | $78 | $4.5K | B | 0xc022c4…eb1c | ||
| 540-559 | 2026-08-01 | 0.7% | $45 | $3.3K | B | 0xccca8e…75cb | ||
| 480-499 | 2026-08-01 | 0.5% | $5 | $1.7K | B | 0xb3ae9c…8ea8 | ||
| 440-459 | 2026-08-01 | 0.5% | — | $8.7K | B | 0x662fca…b06a | ||
| 520-539 | 2026-08-01 | 0.5% | $118 | $4.8K | B | 0xaa002e…5201 | ||
| 460-479 | 2026-08-01 | 0.3% | $4.1K | $7.7K | B | 0xb34e61…1a57 | ||
| 400-419 | 2026-08-01 | 0.2% | — | $8.9K | B | 0xef57a4…91ec | ||
| 420-439 | 2026-08-01 | 0.2% | — | $9.4K | B | 0x22330e…9e29 | ||
| 280-299 | 2026-08-01 | 0.2% | — | $12K | B | 0xa7f850…e6f0 | ||
| 500-519 | 2026-08-01 | 0.2% | $192 | $2.1K | B | 0x0e418b…feb0 | ||
| 20-39 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $5.9K | B | 0x8cd28d…0f0a | ||
| 40-59 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $280 | B | 0xd2b298…5e70 | ||
| 0-19 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | $10 | $27K | B | 0x8d303a…4af8 | ||
| 100-119 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $2.3K | B | 0x55683a…391e | ||
| 120-139 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $2.6K | B | 0xda3192…4aff | ||
| 140-159 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $1.4K | B | 0x6b7b36…38f9 | ||
| 160-179 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $1.3K | B | 0x8d389f…1856 | ||
| 180-199 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $2.4K | B | 0x7ab527…e191 | ||
| 200-219 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $2.7K | B | 0x4a951a…760c | ||
| 220-239 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $4.1K | B | 0xf8c812…0bb3 | ||
| 60-79 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $4.5K | B | 0xc61dae…e051 | ||
| 80-99 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $1.4K | B | 0xbd7b7f…12a8 | ||
| 240-259 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $5.7K | B | 0x6ab02a…0595 | ||
| 260-279 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $6.6K | B | 0x32ba02…cddb | ||
| 320-339 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $4.7K | B | 0x370c60…1ec3 | ||
| 340-359 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $5.1K | B | 0xad5ad5…ad15 | ||
| 360-379 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | $582 | $11K | B | 0xe0feba…b4be | ||
| 380-399 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $12K | B | 0x4ba746…3ae1 | ||
| 300-319 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | $1.0K | $11K | B | 0xaa215c…7a43 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | https://x.com/elonmusk | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of July 2026.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
platform source field
polymarket.description → "https://x.com/elonmusk" sources (5) · stated precedence rule
- https://x.com/elonmusk venue-listed
- x.com venue-listed
- xtracker.polymarket.com venue-listed
- https://xtracker.polymarket.com source of record from rules text · editorial
- X itself from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-july-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-july-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("elon-musk-of-tweets-july-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5HV3KF4YB2",
"slug": "elon-musk-of-tweets-july-2026",
"question": "Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in July 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"pop-culture",
"elon-musk",
"social-media-activity",
"twitter-x",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 51,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 228538,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 65,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
"resolution_source_url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
"url": null,
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "x.com",
"url": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
"url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "X itself",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}