Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026? [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-07 ]
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 26 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-19 | 2026-07-22 | 0.1% | — | $32K | C | 0x7fe956…cacb | ||
| 20-39 | 2026-07-22 | 0.1% | — | $10K | C | 0xf075dd…d356 | ||
| 40-59 | 2026-07-22 | 0.1% | — | $27K | C | 0x4eb9f8…eb20 | ||
| 60-79 | 2026-07-23 | 0.1% | $1.1K | $70K | C | 0x0a3bdc…4312 | ||
| 180-199 | 2026-07-28 | 20.0% | $12K | $46K | C | 0xee550e…63d1 | ||
| 200-219 | 2026-07-28 | 20.0% | $6.4K | $20K | C | 0x4b71b7…006a | ||
| 220-239 | 2026-07-28 | 16.0% | $7.1K | $24K | C | 0x9d7f22…8ae2 | ||
| 160-179 | 2026-07-28 | 13.0% | $7.9K | $32K | C | 0x5fb3ff…33f5 | ||
| 240-259 | 2026-07-28 | 11.2% | $9.3K | $27K | C | 0xca324f…3f32 | ||
| 260-279 | 2026-07-28 | 6.8% | $7.9K | $33K | C | 0xc09ff9…cd26 | ||
| 140-159 | 2026-07-28 | 3.9% | $15K | $49K | C | 0xced446…98e7 | ||
| 280-299 | 2026-07-28 | 3.4% | $9.7K | $35K | C | 0x724e19…029d | ||
| 300-319 | 2026-07-28 | 1.3% | $9.5K | $39K | C | 0xbc1c82…cd33 | ||
| 320-339 | 2026-07-28 | 0.7% | $13K | $48K | C | 0x4e054c…ed5d | ||
| 120-139 | 2026-07-28 | 0.6% | $19K | $49K | C | 0xba9ff5…1cdd | ||
| 340-359 | 2026-07-28 | 0.4% | $15K | $41K | C | 0x2a1630…0aaa | ||
| 360-379 | 2026-07-28 | 0.3% | $7.2K | $36K | C | 0xe150dd…28e8 | ||
| 380-399 | 2026-07-28 | 0.2% | $5.5K | $29K | C | 0x2eb8a0…5012 | ||
| 80-99 | 2026-07-28 | 0.1% | $1.3K | $47K | C | 0x13d387…7519 | ||
| 100-119 | 2026-07-28 | 0.1% | $28K | $67K | C | 0x2ba4f6…d46a | ||
| 400-419 | 2026-07-28 | 0.1% | $2.8K | $37K | C | 0x7e99cd…e8b8 | ||
| 420-439 | 2026-07-28 | 0.1% | $4.1K | $35K | C | 0x1cfdd3…a2ee | ||
| 440-459 | 2026-07-28 | 0.1% | $8.6K | $63K | C | 0xccd3e1…c512 | ||
| 460-479 | 2026-07-28 | 0.1% | — | $26K | C | 0x49d5d5…c821 | ||
| 480-499 | 2026-07-28 | 0.1% | — | $25K | C | 0x35c340…6d01 | ||
| 500+ | 2026-07-28 | 0.1% | $2.1K | $53K | C | 0x171121…d232 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | https://x.com/elonmusk | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 21 12:00 PM ET to July 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
platform source field
polymarket.description → "https://x.com/elonmusk" sources (5) · stated precedence rule
- https://x.com/elonmusk venue-listed
- x.com venue-listed
- xtracker.polymarket.com source of record venue-listed
- https://xtracker.polymarket.com from rules text · editorial
- X itself from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-july-21-july-28/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-july-21-july-28 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("elon-musk-of-tweets-july-21-july-28") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-DTJHX94D67",
"slug": "elon-musk-of-tweets-july-21-july-28",
"question": "Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elon-musk",
"social-media-activity",
"twitter-x",
"pop-culture",
"behavioral-prediction"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 26,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 997841,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 60,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
"resolution_source_url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
"url": null,
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "x.com",
"url": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
"url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "X itself",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}