Will Elon Musk post more than X tweets between July 24 and July 31, 2026? [ resolves 2026-07-31 (8D) ]
polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 26 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 180-199 | 2026-07-31 | 17.0% | $1.0K | $2.5K | B | 0xd3cf70…2e8d | ||
| 160-179 | 2026-07-31 | 16.0% | $323 | $1.9K | B | 0x4a84ee…818d | ||
| 140-159 | 2026-07-31 | 15.0% | $567 | $2.6K | B | 0xee868d…7acf | ||
| 120-139 | 2026-07-31 | 13.0% | $2.3K | $5.5K | B | 0x493665…fb4a | ||
| 200-219 | 2026-07-31 | 12.0% | $583 | $2.4K | B | 0xad2016…32da | ||
| 220-239 | 2026-07-31 | 9.0% | $858 | $2.2K | B | 0x5612ae…8ebe | ||
| 240-259 | 2026-07-31 | 6.3% | $1.4K | $3.1K | B | 0x75d52d…e34a | ||
| 100-119 | 2026-07-31 | 5.9% | $4.3K | $7.6K | B | 0x019348…7406 | ||
| 260-279 | 2026-07-31 | 4.0% | $607 | $1.9K | B | 0x345628…eec8 | ||
| 280-299 | 2026-07-31 | 2.5% | $506 | $2.8K | B | 0x60c205…b350 | ||
| 300-319 | 2026-07-31 | 1.8% | $2.5K | $4.6K | B | 0xad393d…79d5 | ||
| 80-99 | 2026-07-31 | 1.5% | $15K | $25K | B | 0x46b9dc…de02 | ||
| 320-339 | 2026-07-31 | 1.3% | $1.9K | $4.6K | B | 0xb67101…da13 | ||
| 340-359 | 2026-07-31 | 0.4% | $2.7K | $7.6K | B | 0xfa12fb…e04c | ||
| 360-379 | 2026-07-31 | 0.4% | $1.2K | $8.7K | B | 0x09917a…61a6 | ||
| 380-399 | 2026-07-31 | 0.3% | $1.1K | $9.0K | B | 0x4ee82b…64c7 | ||
| 400-419 | 2026-07-31 | 0.3% | $3.0K | $11K | B | 0x66b08d…319c | ||
| 60-79 | 2026-07-31 | 0.2% | $11K | $24K | B | 0x0a631f…9b05 | ||
| 0-19 | 2026-07-31 | 0.1% | — | $3.7K | B | 0x0dddb3…6f7d | ||
| 20-39 | 2026-07-31 | 0.1% | — | $1.7K | B | 0xb481d0…f87e | ||
| 40-59 | 2026-07-31 | 0.1% | — | $4.8K | B | 0xd1ee7a…32f6 | ||
| 420-439 | 2026-07-31 | 0.1% | $1.2K | $10K | B | 0x7d35f0…0684 | ||
| 440-459 | 2026-07-31 | 0.1% | $1.1K | $49K | B | 0xfa6e5a…39b2 | ||
| 460-479 | 2026-07-31 | 0.1% | $2.2K | $12K | B | 0x64df08…2898 | ||
| 480-499 | 2026-07-31 | 0.1% | — | $10K | B | 0x1089ec…5ef0 | ||
| 500+ | 2026-07-31 | 0.1% | $194 | $49K | B | 0xfac493…d97d |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | https://x.com/elonmusk | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 24 12:00 PM ET to July 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
platform source field
polymarket.description → "https://x.com/elonmusk" sources (4) · stated precedence rule
- https://x.com/elonmusk venue-listed
- x.com venue-listed
- xtracker.polymarket.com source of record venue-listed
- X itself from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-july-24-july-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-july-24-july-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("elon-musk-of-tweets-july-24-july-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-QP2KS1N1M7",
"slug": "elon-musk-of-tweets-july-24-july-31",
"question": "Will Elon Musk post more than X tweets between July 24 and July 31, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"pop-culture",
"politics",
"elon-musk",
"social-media",
"activity-measurement",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 26,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 268097,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
"resolution_source_url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
"url": null,
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "x.com",
"url": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
"url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "X itself",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}