Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? [ resolves 2026-08 – 2026-08 ]
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 26 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-19 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $8.1K | C | 0xe8b2fa…366c | ||
| 20-39 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $5.2K | C | 0x6fede1…b2fc | ||
| 40-59 | 2026-08-02 | 0.1% | — | $1.8K | C | 0xf03d36…82f6 | ||
| 60-79 | 2026-08-03 | 0.1% | — | $29K | C | 0x0e63c9…e8d7 | ||
| 80-99 | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | $25K | $100K | C | 0xa0df06…f275 | ||
| 180-199 | 2026-08-07 | 30.0% | $22K | $46K | C | 0xc5fac4…960d | ||
| 200-219 | 2026-08-07 | 21.0% | $13K | $34K | C | 0x1ac391…e52b | ||
| 160-179 | 2026-08-07 | 18.7% | $23K | $66K | C | 0xfd5d06…6b28 | ||
| 220-239 | 2026-08-07 | 14.0% | $14K | $38K | C | 0x31f5ac…032f | ||
| 240-259 | 2026-08-07 | 7.0% | $12K | $42K | C | 0xefb0f2…ac43 | ||
| 140-159 | 2026-08-07 | 6.1% | $23K | $105K | C | 0xdc22e5…9148 | ||
| 260-279 | 2026-08-07 | 2.2% | $10K | $37K | C | 0xed0f20…dd64 | ||
| 280-299 | 2026-08-07 | 0.8% | $24K | $52K | C | 0x4bc5e1…877e | ||
| 120-139 | 2026-08-07 | 0.7% | $23K | $118K | C | 0x5f1384…145e | ||
| 100-119 | 2026-08-07 | 0.2% | $31K | $104K | C | 0xcf32b3…a044 | ||
| 300-319 | 2026-08-07 | 0.2% | $18K | $55K | C | 0xbd28e7…f0a4 | ||
| 320-339 | 2026-08-07 | 0.1% | $19K | $61K | C | 0x7a6200…c821 | ||
| 340-359 | 2026-08-07 | 0.1% | $13K | $53K | C | 0xf053cc…bb80 | ||
| 360-379 | 2026-08-07 | 0.1% | $12K | $63K | C | 0x734066…7d45 | ||
| 380-399 | 2026-08-07 | 0.1% | $1.0K | $62K | C | 0x1b8ffd…b4b1 | ||
| 400-419 | 2026-08-07 | 0.1% | $1.0K | $63K | C | 0xad34dc…e72f | ||
| 420-439 | 2026-08-07 | 0.1% | — | $38K | C | 0xa528a7…6ecf | ||
| 440-459 | 2026-08-07 | 0.1% | — | $14K | C | 0xcc57e4…c360 | ||
| 460-479 | 2026-08-07 | 0.1% | — | $12K | C | 0x5e80c9…c5f9 | ||
| 480-499 | 2026-08-07 | 0.1% | — | $11K | C | 0x9cdef3…b756 | ||
| 500+ | 2026-08-07 | 0.1% | $1.0K | $73K | C | 0xd31a32…c252 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | https://x.com/elonmusk | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 31 12:00 PM ET to August 7, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
platform source field
polymarket.description → "https://x.com/elonmusk" sources (5) · stated precedence rule
- https://x.com/elonmusk venue-listed
- x.com venue-listed
- xtracker.polymarket.com source of record venue-listed
- https://xtracker.polymarket.com from rules text · editorial
- X itself from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-july-31-august-7/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-july-31-august-7 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("elon-musk-of-tweets-july-31-august-7") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GQ763JGFC6",
"slug": "elon-musk-of-tweets-july-31-august-7",
"question": "Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"pop-culture",
"social-media-activity",
"elon-musk",
"twitter-x",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 26,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1291424,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 60,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
"resolution_source_url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
"url": null,
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "x.com",
"url": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
"url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "X itself",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}