Will Elon Musk post more than X tweets between June 5 and June 12, 2026? [ resolves 2026-06-12 (9D) ]
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?
polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 26 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026 | 2026-06-12 | 17.0% | $1.3K | $1.3K | B | 0x040661…5706 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026 | 2026-06-12 | 15.0% | $966 | $966 | B | 0xcb6b74…5d9d | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026 | 2026-06-12 | 13.0% | $2.1K | $2.1K | B | 0xc66050…8e79 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026 | 2026-06-12 | 12.0% | $1.4K | $1.4K | B | 0x918439…6fb0 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026 | 2026-06-12 | 8.9% | $1.4K | $1.4K | B | 0x8c7196…3d69 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026 | 2026-06-12 | 8.9% | $1.7K | $1.7K | B | 0xcf3412…270f | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026 | 2026-06-12 | 8.0% | $1.9K | $1.9K | B | 0x74f2dd…014c | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026 | 2026-06-12 | 6.8% | $1.8K | $1.8K | B | 0x847fff…ab68 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026 | 2026-06-12 | 4.2% | $1.8K | $1.8K | B | 0xceee2a…e388 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026 | 2026-06-12 | 3.8% | $1.4K | $1.4K | B | 0x79ebd8…f7cf | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026 | 2026-06-12 | 2.1% | $2.2K | $2.2K | B | 0xd6cbbb…268b | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026 | 2026-06-12 | 1.6% | $6.9K | $6.9K | B | 0x1a0ffa…1d7e | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026 | 2026-06-12 | 1.5% | $7.8K | $7.8K | B | 0x479fa5…9643 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026 | 2026-06-12 | 1.2% | $3.4K | $3.4K | B | 0x56c267…0433 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026 | 2026-06-12 | 0.4% | $5.8K | $5.8K | B | 0xca2e6f…a8fb | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026 | 2026-06-12 | 0.2% | $8.2K | $8.2K | B | 0xb2cb22…50df | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026 | 2026-06-12 | 0.2% | $9.5K | $9.5K | B | 0x892f3e…46c9 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026 | 2026-06-12 | 0.1% | $5.9K | $5.9K | B | 0x8b1d0d…e1d1 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026 | 2026-06-12 | 0.1% | $4.9K | $4.9K | B | 0xbd467e…0a49 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026 | 2026-06-12 | 0.1% | $10K | $10K | B | 0x5fc451…d393 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026 | 2026-06-12 | 0.1% | $25K | $25K | B | 0xa41d13…4c44 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026 | 2026-06-12 | 0.1% | $25K | $25K | B | 0x83c9c4…ba83 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026 | 2026-06-12 | 0.1% | $42K | $42K | B | 0x95dce2…2647 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026 | 2026-06-12 | 0.1% | $35K | $35K | B | 0x014d94…a8b8 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026 | 2026-06-12 | 0.1% | $28K | $28K | B | 0x6e9a51…12e8 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026 | 2026-06-12 | 0.1% | $47K | $47K | B | 0xf5e03c…e493 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 5 12:00 PM ET to June 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-june-5-june-12/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-june-5-june-12.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("elon-musk-of-tweets-june-5-june-12") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-BKG2HMK6M9",
"slug": "elon-musk-of-tweets-june-5-june-12",
"question": "Will Elon Musk post more than X tweets between June 5 and June 12, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"pop-culture",
"politics",
"social-media-activity",
"elon-musk",
"tweet-volume",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 26,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 281491,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}