Will it be confirmed that Epstein is Satoshi by December 31? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 2.4% | — | $34K | C | 0xe209cf…eecd |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence confirming that Jeffrey Epstein is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence.
If Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Jeffrey Epstein was a member of that group will qualify.
Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/epstein-confirmed-to-be-satoshi-by-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/epstein-confirmed-to-be-satoshi-by-december-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("epstein-confirmed-to-be-satoshi-by-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GLTNLS9W50",
"slug": "epstein-confirmed-to-be-satoshi-by-december-31",
"question": "Will it be confirmed that Epstein is Satoshi by December 31?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"satoshi-nakamoto",
"conspiracy-theory",
"identity-confirmation",
"2026",
"pop-culture"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 33895,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 10,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"discretionary_trigger_no_source",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}